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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
England vs Croatia Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for England vs Croatia at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Wednesday 17 June 2026, 20:00 UTC at AT&T Stadium – Arlington.
Result: England 4-2 Croatia
England vs Croatia finished 4-2. England won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, did not land.
England met Croatia in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at AT&T Stadium – Arlington, finishing 4-2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an England win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.6-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for England vs Croatia with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 7.3% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 13.7% | 11.7% | 5.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11.0% | 9.4% | 4.0% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for England vs Croatia is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an England win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points no (60%). Separately, the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.70 (+10.0% model edge).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices England at 50% to win and Croatia at 22%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes an England win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia Win | 22% | 4.90 | +6.8% |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | +0.5% |
| England Win | 50% | 1.74 | -13.3% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Croatia or the draw at 2.05 (50% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Croatia or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 50% | 2.05 | +2.9% |
| England or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 78% | 1.17 | -8.5% |
| England or Croatia – Double Chance (12) | 72% | 1.22 | -12.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 65% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 38% | 3.00 | +13.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 65% | 1.70 | +10.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 84% | 1.25 | +4.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 62% | 1.38 | -14.0% |
| Over 2.5 | 35% | 2.10 | -25.9% |
| Over 3.5 | 16% | 3.85 | -37.2% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 60% | 1.75 | +5.3% |
| BTTS Yes | 40% | 1.95 | -22.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when England or Croatia is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| England +2.5 | 98% | 1.00 | -1.5% |
| England +1.5 | 93% | 1.03 | -3.8% |
| England +0.5 | 78% | 1.18 | -7.7% |
| England -0.5 | 50% | 1.75 | -12.9% |
| England -1.5 | 24% | 3.00 | -28.9% |
| England -2.5 | 9% | 6.40 | -44.3% |
| England -3.5 | 3% | 12.00 | -68.8% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the England vs Croatia prediction correct?
England vs Croatia finished 4-2. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, did not land.
What is the prediction for England vs Croatia?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. The biggest separate model edge is under 2.5 goals at 1.70 (+10.0% model edge).
Who is the favourite for England vs Croatia?
Our model makes an England win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.6-0.9 scoreline for England vs Croatia.
What is the predicted score for England vs Croatia?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 1.61 for England and 0.86 for Croatia. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do England and Croatia play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 17 June 2026, 20:00 UTC at AT&T Stadium – Arlington.
Where is England vs Croatia being played?
The match takes place at AT&T Stadium – Arlington, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then shown next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
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