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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Group Stage
Tunisia vs Japan Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Tunisia vs Japan at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Sunday 21 June 2026, 04:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Result: Tunisia 0-4 Japan
Tunisia vs Japan finished 0-4. Japan won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, did not land.
Tunisia met Japan in Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, finishing 0-4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Japan win the most likely result at 65%, projecting a 0.7-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Tunisia vs Japan with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5% | 14.6% | 12.6% | 7.2% | 3.1% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 2.4% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Our prediction for Tunisia vs Japan is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 81%. On the match result, the model rates a Japan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 65%. Goals lean under 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points no (65%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.67 (+9.2% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Tunisia at 12% to win and Japan at 65%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Japan win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan Win | 65% | 1.56 | +1.1% |
| Draw | 23% | 3.75 | -12.6% |
| Tunisia Win | 12% | 6.20 | -26.2% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Japan or the draw at 1.11 (88% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Japan or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 88% | 1.11 | -2.2% |
| Tunisia or Japan – Double Chance (12) | 77% | 1.20 | -8.0% |
| Tunisia or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 35% | 2.35 | -17.3% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.7-1.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 35% | 3.10 | +7.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.70 | +4.5% |
| Under 3.5 | 81% | 1.25 | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 1.36 | -11.3% |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.10 | -19.1% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 3.80 | -29.3% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 65%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 65% | 1.67 | +9.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 35% | 2.10 | -27.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Tunisia or Japan is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia +3.5 | 94% | 1.03 | -3.3% |
| Tunisia +2.5 | 83% | 1.16 | -3.4% |
| Tunisia +1.5 | 63% | 1.48 | -6.8% |
| Tunisia +0.5 | 35% | 2.40 | -15.5% |
| Tunisia -0.5 | 12% | 6.00 | -28.6% |
| Tunisia -1.5 | 3% | 12.00 | -67.6% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Tunisia vs Japan prediction correct?
Tunisia vs Japan finished 0-4. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.25, did not land.
What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Japan?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 81% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.67 (+9.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Tunisia vs Japan?
Our model makes a Japan win the most likely result at 65%. It projects an expected 0.7-1.7 scoreline for Tunisia vs Japan.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Japan?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 0.74 for Tunisia and 1.72 for Japan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Tunisia and Japan play?
Kick-off is Sunday 21 June 2026, 04:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Where is Tunisia vs Japan being played?
The match takes place at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.