⚽ Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: San Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland Timbers
San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers finished 3-1. San Jose Earthquakes won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
San Jose Earthquakes face Portland Timbers in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC. Recent form: San Jose Earthquakes have 2 wins from their last 5, while Portland Timbers have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 2, Portland Timbers won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 3.1% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Portland Timbers with a +1.75 start at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (70%), both teams to score points yes (69%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 2 · Portland Timbers 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | San Jose Earthquakes | 3 – 1 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2026-05-24 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2024-06-20 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 2 | Portland Timbers | L |
| 2024-05-16 | Portland Timbers | 4 – 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2023-09-21 | Portland Timbers | 2 – 1 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
📈 Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Portland Timbers. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
Portland Timbers come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 5-4 at home to Minnesota United FC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at San Jose Earthquakes.
- LSan Jose Earthquakes 3-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 13 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- O. BoudaInternational duty
- A. GunnInternational duty
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- R. VieiraInternational duty
- B. ByeLeg Injury
- J. CaicedoThigh Injury
- O. FernandezLower-Body Injury
- Z. McGrawNot in squad
- J. MosqueraFoot Injury
- T. MuseWrist Injury
- F. SurmanKnee Injury
- J. WatermanSuspended (cards)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 40% to win and Portland Timbers at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 40% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
| Portland Timbers Win | 32% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is San Jose Earthquakes or Draw at 1.30 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 67% | 71% | @ 1.30 |
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 59% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 70% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | @ 1.08 |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 72% | @ 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 | 51% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Over 3.5 | 49% | 50% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 12% | @ 8.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 69%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 69% | 71% | @ 1.33 |
| BTTS No | 31% | 29% | @ 3.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Jose Earthquakes or Portland Timbers is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers +2 | 87% | 82% | @ 1.16 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 86% | 85% | 1.12 |
| Portland Timbers +1.75 | 84% | 75% | @ 1.25 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 81% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Portland Timbers +1.5 | 81% | 71% | @ 1.35 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 76% | 83% | 1.14 |
| Portland Timbers +1.25 | 76% | 68% | @ 1.41 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 72% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Portland Timbers +1 | 70% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 67% | 72% | 1.33 |
| Portland Timbers +0.75 | 65% | 57% | @ 1.69 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 60% | 68% | 1.41 |
| Portland Timbers +0.5 | 59% | 51% | @ 1.88 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 54% | 63% | 1.51 |
| Portland Timbers +0.25 | 53% | 45% | @ 2.13 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 47% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Portland Timbers 0 | 46% | 37% | @ 2.58 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 41% | 49% | 1.98 |
| Portland Timbers -0.25 | 40% | 32% | @ 2.95 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 35% | 43% | 2.21 |
| Portland Timbers -0.5 | 33% | 28% | @ 3.37 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1 | 30% | 37% | 2.61 |
| Portland Timbers -0.75 | 28% | 24% | @ 3.96 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 24% | 32% | 2.94 |
| Portland Timbers -1 | 24% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.5 | 19% | 29% | 3.24 |
| Portland Timbers -1.25 | 19% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.75 | 16% | 25% | 3.80 |
| Portland Timbers -1.5 | 14% | 15% | 6.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -2 | 13% | 18% | 5.25 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
Our model's main pick is Portland Timbers with a +1.75 start at odds 1.25, with a 84% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.91 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.72 for Portland Timbers. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is Sunday 27 September 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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