Portugal

Thu 24 Sep18:45Upcoming

Wales

⚽ UEFA Nations League

Portugal vs Wales Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portugal vs Wales in the UEFA Nations League. Kick-off Thursday 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Market view Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Portugal face Wales in the UEFA Nations League, kicking off Thursday 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. The bookmaker market makes a Portugal win the most likely result at 77%, implying a 2.5-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the market view, a score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portugal vs Wales with probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

📈 Market view

We don’t publish a pick for this match. In our own testing, our model did not beat the bookmaker market in this competition, so this page shows the market’s view: probabilities implied by the odds, with the bookmaker margin removed. See today’s picks for the matches we do cover.

Outcome	Market %
Portugal win	77%
Draw	15%
Wales win	8%
Over 2.5 goals	60%
Both teams to score	44%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (market-implied, exp. 2.45 – 0.65 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.5%	2.9%	1.0%	0.2%	0.0%
1	11.0%	7.2%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
2	13.5%	8.8%	2.9%	0.6%	0.1%
3	11.0%	7.2%	2.3%	0.5%	0.1%
4	6.8%	4.4%	1.4%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 2-0

Portugal winDrawWales win

🧠 Market summary

This page shows the bookmaker market’s view of Portugal vs Wales. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Portugal win is the most likely result at 77%. Goals lean over 2.5 at 60%. Both teams to score: no at 56%.

📊 Key numbers

Portugal 77%Draw 15%Wales 8%

77%15%

77%

Portugal Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

📈 Recent form

Portugal

Portugal come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 4, scoring 6 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at USA.

WPortugal 2-1 NigeriaFriendlies
WPortugal 2-1 ChileFriendlies
WUSA 0-2 PortugalFriendlies
DMexico 0-0 PortugalFriendlies

Wales

Wales come into this game with 0 wins and 2 draws from their last 3, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Romania.

LRomania 2-1 WalesFriendlies
DWales 1-1 GhanaFriendlies
DWales 1-1 Northern IrelandFriendlies

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Portugal at 77% to win and Wales at 8%, with the draw at 15%. The bookmaker market makes a Portugal win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Portugal Win	77%	@ 1.22
Draw	15%	@ 6.25
Wales Win	8%	@ 12.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portugal or Draw at 1.05 (92% market).

Selection	Market %	Odds
Portugal or Draw	92%	@ 1.05
Wales or Draw	23%	@ 4.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals implied by the odds point to an expected 2.5-0.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	61%	@ 1.53
Over 2.5	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	40%	@ 2.35
Over 3.5	39%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. The market leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS Yes	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Portugal vs Wales?

We don't publish a pick for this match. Based on the bookmaker odds, a Portugal win is the most likely result at 77%.

Who is the favourite for Portugal vs Wales?

Our model makes a Portugal win the most likely result at 77%. It projects an expected 2.5-0.7 scoreline for Portugal vs Wales.

What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Wales?

The most likely scoreline implied by the bookmaker odds is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.45 for Portugal and 0.65 for Wales. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Portugal and Wales play?

Kick-off is Thursday 24 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

For this competition we show probabilities implied by the bookmaker odds, with the margin removed. In our own testing our model did not beat the market here, so we don't publish model picks for it. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.