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⚽ Bundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Borussia Dortmund face Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Borussia Dortmund have 4 wins from their last 4, while Werder Bremen have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 74%, projecting a 2.3-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Borussia Dortmund Win @ 1.33

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.29 – 1.02 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.7%	3.7%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
1	8.4%	8.5%	4.4%	1.5%	0.4%
2	9.6%	9.8%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	7.3%	7.5%	3.8%	1.3%	0.3%
4	4.2%	4.3%	2.2%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 2-1

Borussia Dortmund winDrawWerder Bremen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 74%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (57%).

📊 Key numbers

Borussia Dortmund 74%Draw 15%Werder Bremen 11%

74%15%11%

74%

Borussia Dortmund Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen. Wins shown from Borussia Dortmund’s perspective: Borussia Dortmund 3 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-16	Werder Bremen	0 – 2	Borussia Dortmund	W
2026-01-13	Borussia Dortmund	3 – 0	Werder Bremen	W
2025-01-25	Borussia Dortmund	2 – 2	Werder Bremen	D
2024-08-31	Werder Bremen	0 – 0	Borussia Dortmund	D
2024-03-09	Werder Bremen	1 – 2	Borussia Dortmund	W

📈 Recent form

Borussia Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at HEBC. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
WBorussia Dortmund 3-2 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
WHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
WHEBC 0-5 Borussia DortmundDFB Pokal

Werder Bremen

Werder Bremen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Lüneburger SK Hansa. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-4 at SC Freiburg.

WWerder Bremen 3-2 FC AugsburgBundesliga
D1. FC Köln 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
WWerder Bremen 3-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
LSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
WLüneburger SK Hansa 0-3 Werder BremenDFB Pokal

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Borussia Dortmund

E. CanKnee Injury
G. KonstanteliasKnee Injury
C. ChukwuemekaMuscle Injury
J. LermaMuscle Injury
F. ManeMuscle Injury
J. RyersonRibs Injury
N. SchlotterbeckAnkle Injury

Werder Bremen

F. AguCalf Injury
S. AlveroCalf Injury
S. MusahSurgery
M. N'DiayeGroin Injury
J. NjinmahThigh Injury
J. StageMuscle Injury
K. ToppKnee Injury
S. LynenHip Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Borussia Dortmund at 74% to win and Werder Bremen at 11%, with the draw at 15%. Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund Win	74%	71%	@ 1.33
Draw	15%	18%	@ 5.25
Werder Bremen Win	11%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Borussia Dortmund or Draw at 1.08 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Borussia Dortmund or Draw	90%	89%	@ 1.08
Werder Bremen or Draw	27%	29%	@ 3.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.3-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	64%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	58%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	42%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	36%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	16%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	57%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	43%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Borussia Dortmund 71%Draw 17%Werder Bremen 12%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Our model's main pick is a Borussia Dortmund win at odds 1.33, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Our model makes a Borussia Dortmund win the most likely result at 74%. It projects an expected 2.3-1.0 scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen.

What is the predicted score for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.29 for Borussia Dortmund and 1.02 for Werder Bremen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.