Fri 9 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Lens vs Lyon Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lens vs Lyon in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lens face Lyon in the Ligue 1, kicking off Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lens have 1 win from their last 5, while Lyon have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Lens won 3, Lyon won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lens vs Lyon with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Lens or Draw @ 1.40

69%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.51 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.5%	7.6%	5.3%	2.5%	0.9%
1	8.3%	11.5%	8.0%	3.7%	1.3%
2	6.3%	8.7%	6.1%	2.8%	1.0%
3	3.2%	4.4%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%
4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lens winDrawLyon win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lens vs Lyon comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lens or Draw at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lens win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 44%. Goals lean over 2.5 (55%), both teams to score points yes (59%).

📊 Key numbers

Lens 44%Draw 23%Lyon 32%

44%23%32%

44%

Lens Win

55%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lens and Lyon. Wins shown from Lens’s perspective: Lens 3 · 1 drawn · Lyon 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-17	Lyon	0 – 4	Lens	W
2025-08-16	Lens	0 – 1	Lyon	L
2025-05-04	Lyon	1 – 2	Lens	W
2024-09-15	Lens	0 – 0	Lyon	D
2024-03-03	Lyon	0 – 3	Lens	W

📈 Recent form

Lens

Lens come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Slavia Praha. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Monaco.

LMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DLe Mans 2-2 LensLigue 1
WSlavia Praha 2-3 LensUEFA Champions League
LLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LStrasbourg 2-1 LensLigue 1

Lyon

Lyon come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Rennes.

WLyon 4-0 RennesLigue 1
WAnderlecht 1-2 LyonUEFA Europa League
DParis FC 0-0 LyonLigue 1
WLyon 3-1 AuxerreLigue 1
DLyon 1-1 Le HavreLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lens

M. NawrockiInjury
A. SimaMuscle Injury
S. BaidooKnee Injury
J. ChavezThigh Injury
A. HaidaraInjury

Lyon

M. NiakhateMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lens at 44% to win and Lyon at 32%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lens win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens Win	44%	39%	@ 2.45
Lyon Win	32%	35%	@ 2.75
Draw	23%	26%	@ 3.60

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lens or Draw at 1.40 (69% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lens or Draw	69%	65%	@ 1.40
Lyon or Draw	57%	61%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 55% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	78%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	67%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	55%	62%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	45%	38%	@ 2.50
Over 3.5	33%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	22%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 59%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	59%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	41%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Lens 39%Draw 26%Lyon 35%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lens vs Lyon?

Our model's main pick is Lens or Draw at odds 1.40, with a 69% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.

Who is the favourite for Lens vs Lyon?

Our model makes a Lens win the most likely result at 44%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Lens vs Lyon.

What is the predicted score for Lens vs Lyon?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.51 for Lens and 1.39 for Lyon. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lens and Lyon play?

Kick-off is Friday 09 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.