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⚽ Bundesliga

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hoffenheim face Hamburger SV in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hoffenheim have 1 win from their last 4, while Hamburger SV have 1 win from their last 4. In their last 2 meetings, Hoffenheim won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Hoffenheim win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 2.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.40

66%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 2.17 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	4.1%	2.6%	1.1%	0.3%
1	7.1%	8.9%	5.5%	2.3%	0.7%
2	7.7%	9.6%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	5.6%	7.0%	4.4%	1.8%	0.6%
4	3.0%	3.8%	2.4%	1.0%	0.3%

Projected score: 2-1

Hoffenheim winDrawHamburger SV win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 66% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Hoffenheim win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

Hoffenheim 54%Draw 26%Hamburger SV 20%

54%26%20%

54%

Hoffenheim Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV. Wins shown from Hoffenheim’s perspective: Hoffenheim 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	Hamburger SV	1 – 2	Hoffenheim	W
2025-12-13	Hoffenheim	4 – 1	Hamburger SV	W

📈 Recent form

Hoffenheim

Hoffenheim come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to VfB Stuttgart. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at SC Paderborn 07.

LSC Paderborn 07 3-1 HoffenheimBundesliga
LOFI 2-0 HoffenheimUEFA Europa League
WHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
LHoffenheim 2-3 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
L1. FC Köln 3-2 HoffenheimBundesliga

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to FC Copenhagen. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.

WHamburger SV 2-0 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LBorussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 7 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Hoffenheim

BernardoAchilles Tendon Injury
A. HajdariMuscle Injury

Hamburger SV

P. DakaThigh Injury
A. GronbaekThigh Injury
M. VuskovicDoping
T. MoffiKnee Injury
A. Rossing-LelesiitAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hoffenheim at 54% to win and Hamburger SV at 20%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Hoffenheim win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Hoffenheim Win	54%	67%	@ 1.42
Draw	26%	19%	@ 5.00
Hamburger SV Win	20%	14%	@ 7.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Hoffenheim or Draw at 1.11 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Hoffenheim or Draw	79%	86%	@ 1.11
Hamburger SV or Draw	45%	33%	@ 2.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	66%	68%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	55%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 3.5	45%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	34%	32%	@ 3.00
Under 1.5	14%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	37%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

Hoffenheim 67%Draw 19%Hamburger SV 14%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.40, with a 66% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?

Our model makes a Hoffenheim win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 2.2-1.2 scoreline for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV.

What is the predicted score for Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-1, based on expected goals of 2.17 for Hoffenheim and 1.25 for Hamburger SV. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hoffenheim and Hamburger SV play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.