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⚽ Bundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

FSV Mainz 05 face Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: FSV Mainz 05 have 2 wins from their last 4, while Bayer Leverkusen have 2 wins from their last 4. In their last 5 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.3-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Bayer Leverkusen or Draw @ 1.40

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.27 – 1.83 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.5%	8.2%	7.5%	4.6%	2.1%
1	5.7%	10.5%	9.6%	5.8%	2.7%
2	3.6%	6.6%	6.1%	3.7%	1.7%
3	1.5%	2.8%	2.6%	1.6%	0.7%
4	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

FSV Mainz 05 winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at odds 1.40, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

FSV Mainz 05 26%Draw 25%Bayer Leverkusen 49%

26%25%49%

49%

Bayer Leverkusen Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen. Wins shown from FSV Mainz 05’s perspective: 2 drawn · Bayer Leverkusen 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-02-28	Bayer Leverkusen	1 – 1	FSV Mainz 05	D
2025-10-18	FSV Mainz 05	3 – 4	Bayer Leverkusen	L
2025-05-17	FSV Mainz 05	2 – 2	Bayer Leverkusen	D
2025-01-14	Bayer Leverkusen	1 – 0	FSV Mainz 05	L
2024-02-23	Bayer Leverkusen	2 – 1	FSV Mainz 05	L

📈 Recent form

FSV Mainz 05

FSV Mainz 05 come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 13 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at Hamburger SV. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt.

WWaldhof Mannheim 0-3 FSV Mainz 05Friendlies Clubs
WBorussia Mönchengladbach 3-4 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
LFSV Mainz 05 1-3 Eintracht FrankfurtBundesliga
WHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
DFSV Mainz 05 0-0 SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Union Berlin. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at SV Elversberg.

WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 2-0 CeljeUEFA Europa League
DFC Augsburg 2-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
WBayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union BerlinBundesliga
LSV Elversberg 3-2 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

FSV Mainz 05

D. KohrFoot Injury
SilasBroken shinbone
R. ZentnerHand Injury
A. CaciFace Injury
P. NebelMuscle Injury
O. RuoppiKnee Injury
S. WidmerKnee Injury

Bayer Leverkusen

M. CulbreathFoot Injury
G. DoueCalf Injury
K. EichhornIllness

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices FSV Mainz 05 at 26% to win and Bayer Leverkusen at 49%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen Win	49%	43%	@ 2.20
FSV Mainz 05 Win	26%	32%	@ 3.00
Draw	25%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.40 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	74%	68%	@ 1.40
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw	51%	57%	@ 1.67

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	84%	@ 1.12
Under 3.5	62%	55%	@ 1.73
Over 2.5	60%	66%	@ 1.44
Under 2.5	40%	34%	@ 2.75
Over 3.5	38%	45%	@ 2.10
Under 1.5	18%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	40%	34%	@ 2.75

📈 How the market moved

FSV Mainz 05 32%Draw 25%Bayer Leverkusen 44%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model's main pick is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at odds 1.40, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 68%.

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Our model makes a Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.8 scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen.

What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.27 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.83 for Bayer Leverkusen. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.