Sat 10 Oct14:15Upcoming

⚽ La Liga

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Alavés face Atlético Madrid in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC. Recent form: Alavés have 2 wins from their last 5, while Atlético Madrid have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Alavés won 1, Atlético Madrid won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.1-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.12 – 1.46 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.6%	11.1%	8.1%	3.9%	1.4%
1	8.5%	12.4%	9.0%	4.4%	1.6%
2	4.8%	6.9%	5.1%	2.5%	0.9%
3	1.8%	2.6%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Alavés winDrawAtlético Madrid win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Madrid win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Alavés 24%Draw 25%Atlético Madrid 51%

24%25%51%

51%

Atlético Madrid Win

52%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Alavés and Atlético Madrid. Wins shown from Alavés’s perspective: Alavés 1 · 2 drawn · Atlético Madrid 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-01-18	Atlético Madrid	1 – 0	Alavés	L
2025-08-30	Alavés	1 – 1	Atlético Madrid	D
2025-05-03	Alavés	0 – 0	Atlético Madrid	D
2024-11-23	Atlético Madrid	2 – 1	Alavés	L
2024-04-21	Alavés	2 – 0	Atlético Madrid	W

📈 Recent form

Alavés

Alavés come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Valencia.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
LAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LRacing Santander 2-1 AlavésLa Liga
WAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WAlavés 1-0 VillarrealLa Liga

Atlético Madrid

Atlético Madrid come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Osasuna. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Liverpool.

WAtlético Madrid 2-1 Real MadridLa Liga
WAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
WReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
LLiverpool 2-1 Atlético MadridUEFA Champions League
LAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Alavés

F. GarcesSuspended
V. KoskiMuscle Injury
M. RodriguezAnkle Injury

Atlético Madrid

A. SorlothMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Alavés at 24% to win and Atlético Madrid at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid Win	51%	52%	@ 1.83
Draw	25%	26%	@ 3.60
Alavés Win	24%	22%	@ 4.33

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Madrid or Draw at 1.22 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Madrid or Draw	76%	78%	@ 1.22
Alavés or Draw	49%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	74%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	73%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 2.5	52%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 2.5	48%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 1.5	27%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	26%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	52%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	48%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 How the market moved

Alavés 22%Draw 26%Atlético Madrid 52%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

Our model makes an Atlético Madrid win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.5 scoreline for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid.

What is the predicted score for Alavés vs Atlético Madrid?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.12 for Alavés and 1.46 for Atlético Madrid. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Alavés and Atlético Madrid play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 14:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.