Sat 10 Oct16:45Upcoming

⚽ Eredivisie

Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Feyenoord face AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:45 UTC. Recent form: Feyenoord have 4 wins from their last 5, while AZ Alkmaar have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Feyenoord won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Feyenoord win the most likely result at 56%, projecting a 1.9-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Feyenoord or Draw @ 1.28

78%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.95 – 1.33 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	5.0%	3.3%	1.5%	0.5%
1	7.3%	9.8%	6.5%	2.9%	1.0%
2	7.2%	9.5%	6.3%	2.8%	0.9%
3	4.7%	6.2%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
4	2.3%	3.0%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Feyenoord winDrawAZ Alkmaar win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Feyenoord or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Feyenoord win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 56%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Feyenoord 56%Draw 19%AZ Alkmaar 25%

56%19%25%

56%

Feyenoord Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar. Wins shown from Feyenoord’s perspective: Feyenoord 3 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Feyenoord	1 – 1	AZ Alkmaar	D
2025-09-21	AZ Alkmaar	3 – 3	Feyenoord	D
2025-04-05	AZ Alkmaar	0 – 1	Feyenoord	W
2024-11-02	Feyenoord	3 – 2	AZ Alkmaar	W
2024-02-04	AZ Alkmaar	0 – 1	Feyenoord	W

📈 Recent form

Feyenoord

Feyenoord come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 7-0 at PEC Zwolle. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-5 at Barcelona.

WFeyenoord 5-0 UtrechtEredivisie
WPEC Zwolle 0-7 FeyenoordEredivisie
LBarcelona 5-1 FeyenoordUEFA Champions League
WNEC Nijmegen 1-3 FeyenoordEredivisie
DFeyenoord 2-2 ADO Den HaagEredivisie

AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at home to Go Ahead Eagles. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Sunderland.

WAZ Alkmaar 1-0 TelstarEredivisie
LSunderland 1-0 AZ AlkmaarUEFA Europa League
DAZ Alkmaar 1-1 Willem IIEredivisie
WHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
WAZ Alkmaar 5-2 Go Ahead EaglesEredivisie

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Feyenoord

T. BeelenBroken Leg
J. BosKnee Injury
J. ModerKnee Injury
B. NieuwkoopInjury
G. SmalAnkle Injury
T. WatanabeLeg Injury
G. BorgesKnock

AZ Alkmaar

S. ResinkKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Feyenoord at 56% to win and AZ Alkmaar at 25%, with the draw at 19%. Our model makes a Feyenoord win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Feyenoord Win	56%	52%	@ 1.80
AZ Alkmaar Win	25%	25%	@ 3.75
Draw	19%	22%	@ 4.20

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Feyenoord or Draw at 1.28 (78% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Feyenoord or Draw	78%	75%	@ 1.28
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	46%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	64%	67%	@ 1.40
Under 3.5	58%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	42%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	36%	33%	@ 2.88
Under 1.5	16%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	36%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Feyenoord 52%Draw 24%AZ Alkmaar 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model's main pick is Feyenoord or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 78% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?

Our model makes a Feyenoord win the most likely result at 56%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.3 scoreline for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar.

What is the predicted score for Feyenoord vs AZ Alkmaar?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.95 for Feyenoord and 1.33 for AZ Alkmaar. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Feyenoord and AZ Alkmaar play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 16:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.