Sat 10 Oct17:00Upcoming

⚽ Major League Soccer

Toronto FC vs CF Montreal Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Toronto FC face CF Montreal in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 1 win from their last 5, while CF Montreal have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 2, CF Montreal won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Toronto FC win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.53

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.92 – 1.44 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.5%	5.0%	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%
1	6.7%	9.6%	6.9%	3.3%	1.2%
2	6.4%	9.2%	6.6%	3.2%	1.1%
3	4.1%	5.9%	4.2%	2.0%	0.7%
4	2.0%	2.8%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Toronto FC winDrawCF Montreal win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Toronto FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (65%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

📊 Key numbers

Toronto FC 38%Draw 25%CF Montreal 37%

38%25%37%

38%

Toronto FC Win

65%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and CF Montreal. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: Toronto FC 2 · 1 drawn · CF Montreal 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-16	CF Montreal	0 – 0	Toronto FC	D
2024-07-20	CF Montreal	0 – 1	Toronto FC	W
2024-05-18	Toronto FC	5 – 1	CF Montreal	W
2023-08-20	Toronto FC	2 – 3	CF Montreal	L
2023-05-13	CF Montreal	2 – 0	Toronto FC	L

📈 Recent form

Toronto FC

Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Nashville SC.

LNashville SC 2-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

CF Montreal

CF Montreal come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to FC Cincinnati. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Columbus Crew.

WCF Montreal 3-1 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
LCF Montreal 0-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
WCF Montreal 2-1 Vancouver WhitecapsCanadian Championship
LColorado Rapids 1-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
LCF Montreal 1-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Toronto FC

N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
D. MihailovicMuscle Injury

CF Montreal

B. HidalgoGroin Injury
B. CeballosLower-Body Injury
D. SealyNot in squad
B. VeraLower-Body Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Toronto FC at 38% to win and CF Montreal at 37%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Toronto FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toronto FC Win	38%	49%	@ 1.90
CF Montreal Win	37%	27%	@ 3.50
Draw	25%	24%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toronto FC or Draw at 1.28 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toronto FC or Draw	64%	73%	@ 1.28
CF Montreal or Draw	63%	51%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 65% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	83%	@ 1.14
Over 2.5	65%	61%	@ 1.53
Under 3.5	57%	59%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	43%	41%	@ 2.25
Under 2.5	35%	39%	@ 2.40
Under 1.5	15%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	62%	@ 1.50
BTTS No	35%	38%	@ 2.50

📈 How the market moved

Toronto FC 49%Draw 25%CF Montreal 26%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.53, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 61%.

Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

Our model makes a Toronto FC win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal.

What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs CF Montreal?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.92 for Toronto FC and 1.44 for CF Montreal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Toronto FC and CF Montreal play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 17:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.