Sat 10 Oct18:30Upcoming

⚽ Major League Soccer

Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Chicago Fire face New York City FC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:30 UTC. Recent form: Chicago Fire have 1 win from their last 5, while New York City FC have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.4-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

71%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.39 – 1.34 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	8.7%	5.9%	2.6%	0.9%
1	9.1%	12.1%	8.1%	3.6%	1.2%
2	6.3%	8.4%	5.7%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.9%	3.9%	2.6%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.0%	1.4%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Chicago Fire winDrawNew York City FC win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 71% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chicago Fire win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Chicago Fire 38%Draw 31%New York City FC 31%

38%31%31%

38%

Chicago Fire Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Chicago Fire and New York City FC. Wins shown from Chicago Fire’s perspective: 3 drawn · New York City FC 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-07-25	New York City FC	3 – 1	Chicago Fire	L
2024-08-24	New York City FC	2 – 2	Chicago Fire	D
2024-07-14	Chicago Fire	0 – 0	New York City FC	D
2023-10-22	New York City FC	1 – 0	Chicago Fire	L
2023-03-05	Chicago Fire	1 – 1	New York City FC	D

📈 Recent form

Chicago Fire

Chicago Fire come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Charlotte. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Nashville SC.

WCharlotte 0-1 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
LNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
LChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
DChicago Fire 1-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.

DAtlanta United FC 2-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Chicago Fire

A. FrancoKnee Injury
R. TurdeanNot in squad

New York City FC

D. BaieraKnee Injury
A. FarnosInjury
M. MoralezKnee Injury
K. ParksInjury
Talles MagnoMuscle Injury
K. TrewinAnkle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Chicago Fire at 38% to win and New York City FC at 31%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chicago Fire Win	38%	53%	@ 1.75
New York City FC Win	31%	24%	@ 3.90
Draw	31%	24%	@ 3.90

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chicago Fire or Draw at 1.25 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Chicago Fire or Draw	67%	76%	@ 1.25
New York City FC or Draw	60%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	71%	59%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	51%	61%	@ 1.53
Under 2.5	49%	39%	@ 2.40
Over 3.5	29%	41%	@ 2.25
Under 1.5	24%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	45%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

Chicago Fire 52%Draw 24%New York City FC 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 71% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.3 scoreline for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC.

What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs New York City FC?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.39 for Chicago Fire and 1.34 for New York City FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Chicago Fire and New York City FC play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.