Sat 10 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Napoli vs Frosinone in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Napoli face Frosinone in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Napoli have 2 wins from their last 5, while Frosinone have 3 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Napoli won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Napoli vs Frosinone with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.67

70%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.60 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	7.4%	4.2%	1.6%	0.5%
1	10.3%	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.4%	5.4%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.4%	5.0%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.8%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Napoli winDrawFrosinone win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 70% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Napoli win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Napoli 64%Draw 18%Frosinone 18%

64%18%18%

64%

Napoli Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Napoli and Frosinone. Wins shown from Napoli’s perspective: Napoli 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2024-04-14	Napoli	2 – 2	Frosinone	D
2023-08-19	Frosinone	1 – 3	Napoli	W

📈 Recent form

Napoli

Napoli come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Bologna. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Arsenal.

DFiorentina 1-1 NapoliSerie A
WNapoli 1-0 BolognaSerie A
LNapoli 0-1 ArsenalUEFA Champions League
LInter 3-2 NapoliSerie A
LNapoli 1-2 ComoSerie A

Frosinone

Frosinone come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Fiorentina. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WFrosinone 2-0 ComoSerie A
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A
WFrosinone 3-2 VeneziaSerie A
DSassuolo 1-1 FrosinoneCoppa Italia
WFiorentina 0-3 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 14 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Napoli

A. BuongiornoKnee Injury
C. FavasuliThigh Injury
A. VergaraCalf Injury
Alisson SantosMuscle Injury
F. AnguissaGroin Injury
GiovaneGroin Injury
L. MarianucciKnee Injury
S. McTominayHeart Problems

Frosinone

D. BirligeaMuscle Injury
F. GrillitschThigh Injury
A. RaimondoHealth problems

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Napoli at 64% to win and Frosinone at 18%, with the draw at 18%. Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Napoli Win	64%	65%	@ 1.42
Frosinone Win	18%	15%	@ 6.25
Draw	18%	20%	@ 4.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Napoli or Draw at 1.12 (84% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Napoli or Draw	84%	85%	@ 1.12
Frosinone or Draw	38%	35%	@ 2.75

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	83%	@ 1.14
Under 3.5	70%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 2.5	52%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	48%	36%	@ 2.62
Over 3.5	30%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	24%	17%	@ 5.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	47%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Napoli 65%Draw 20%Frosinone 15%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.67, with a 70% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 57%.

Who is the favourite for Napoli vs Frosinone?

Our model makes a Napoli win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Napoli vs Frosinone.

What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Frosinone?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.60 for Napoli and 1.14 for Frosinone. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Napoli and Frosinone play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.