Sat 10 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Monaco vs Toulouse Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Monaco vs Toulouse in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Monaco face Toulouse in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Monaco have 4 wins from their last 5, while Toulouse have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Monaco won 2, Toulouse won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.9-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Monaco vs Toulouse with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

62%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.85 – 1.25 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.5%	5.6%	3.5%	1.5%	0.5%
1	8.3%	10.4%	6.5%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.7%	9.6%	6.0%	2.5%	0.8%
3	4.8%	5.9%	3.7%	1.5%	0.5%
4	2.2%	2.7%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Monaco winDrawToulouse win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Monaco vs Toulouse comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 62% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Monaco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Monaco 52%Draw 27%Toulouse 22%

52%27%22%

52%

Monaco Win

60%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Monaco and Toulouse. Wins shown from Monaco’s perspective: Monaco 2 · 2 drawn · Toulouse 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-25	Toulouse	2 – 2	Monaco	D
2025-10-25	Monaco	1 – 0	Toulouse	W
2025-03-07	Toulouse	1 – 1	Monaco	D
2024-12-07	Monaco	2 – 0	Toulouse	W
2024-02-18	Monaco	1 – 2	Toulouse	L

📈 Recent form

Monaco

Monaco come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WMonaco 2-1 LensLigue 1
DStrasbourg 1-1 MonacoLigue 1
WParis Saint-Germain 1-2 MonacoLigue 1
WMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1
WMonaco 4-1 Gornik ZabrzeUEFA Europa Conference

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.

WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Monaco

P. BrunnerSuspended
A. FatiCalf Injury
M. CoulibalyMuscle Injury
S. IdumboGroin Injury

Toulouse

R. NicolaisenCalf Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Monaco at 52% to win and Toulouse at 22%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco Win	52%	59%	@ 1.60
Draw	27%	23%	@ 4.10
Toulouse Win	22%	17%	@ 5.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Monaco or Draw at 1.14 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Monaco or Draw	77%	83%	@ 1.14
Toulouse or Draw	47%	41%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	62%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	60%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 2.5	40%	41%	@ 2.30
Over 3.5	38%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	18%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	40%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

Monaco 60%Draw 22%Toulouse 18%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Monaco vs Toulouse?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 62% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Monaco vs Toulouse?

Our model makes a Monaco win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.2 scoreline for Monaco vs Toulouse.

What is the predicted score for Monaco vs Toulouse?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.85 for Monaco and 1.25 for Toulouse. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Monaco and Toulouse play?

Kick-off is Saturday 10 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.