Sun 11 Oct11:30Upcoming

⚽ Jupiler Pro League

Standard Liège vs Charleroi Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Standard Liège vs Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Standard Liège face Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC. Recent form: Standard Liège have 3 wins from their last 5, while Charleroi have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Standard Liège won 1, Charleroi won 3, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Charleroi win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.0-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Standard Liège vs Charleroi with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.03 – 1.27 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	12.7%	8.1%	3.4%	1.1%
1	10.3%	13.1%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	5.3%	6.8%	4.3%	1.8%	0.6%
3	1.8%	2.3%	1.5%	0.6%	0.2%
4	0.5%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Standard Liège winDrawCharleroi win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Standard Liège vs Charleroi comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Charleroi win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean under 2.5 (60%), both teams to score points no (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Standard Liège 30%Draw 29%Charleroi 41%

30%29%41%

41%

Charleroi Win

60%

Under 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Standard Liège and Charleroi. Wins shown from Standard Liège’s perspective: Standard Liège 1 · 1 drawn · Charleroi 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-23	Standard Liège	0 – 2	Charleroi	L
2026-04-18	Charleroi	1 – 2	Standard Liège	W
2025-05-04	Standard Liège	0 – 1	Charleroi	L
2025-04-06	Charleroi	1 – 0	Standard Liège	L
2024-11-30	Charleroi	1 – 1	Standard Liège	D

📈 Recent form

Standard Liège

Standard Liège come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to RAAL La Louvière. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Gent.

LGent 2-1 Standard LiègeJupiler Pro League
LKVC Westerlo 4-2 Standard LiègeJupiler Pro League
WStandard Liège 1-0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
WOH Leuven 1-2 Standard LiègeJupiler Pro League
WStandard Liège 2-0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League

Charleroi

Charleroi come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Kortrijk. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Union St. Gilloise.

WCharleroi 3-2 Cercle BruggeJupiler Pro League
WZulte Waregem 0-1 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
LCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WKortrijk 1-3 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
WCharleroi 2-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Standard Liège at 30% to win and Charleroi at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Charleroi win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Charleroi Win	41%	41%	@ 2.25
Standard Liège Win	30%	31%	@ 2.90
Draw	29%	28%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Charleroi or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Charleroi or Draw	68%	69%	@ 1.36
Standard Liège or Draw	58%	59%	@ 1.53

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 60% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	80%	69%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	67%	75%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	60%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	40%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	33%	25%	@ 3.75
Over 3.5	20%	31%	@ 3.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	54%	44%	@ 2.10
BTTS Yes	46%	56%	@ 1.67

📈 How the market moved

Standard Liège 32%Draw 28%Charleroi 40%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Standard Liège vs Charleroi?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for Standard Liège vs Charleroi?

Our model makes a Charleroi win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.0-1.3 scoreline for Standard Liège vs Charleroi.

What is the predicted score for Standard Liège vs Charleroi?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.03 for Standard Liège and 1.27 for Charleroi. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Standard Liège and Charleroi play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 11:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.