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⚽ Serie A

Lazio vs Monza Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lazio vs Monza in the Serie A. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lazio face Monza in the Serie A, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC. Recent form: Lazio have 4 wins from their last 5, while Monza have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Lazio won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 64%, projecting a 1.9-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lazio vs Monza with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.93 – 1.01 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	5.3%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
1	10.2%	10.3%	5.2%	1.8%	0.4%
2	9.8%	9.9%	5.0%	1.7%	0.4%
3	6.3%	6.4%	3.2%	1.1%	0.3%
4	3.1%	3.1%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Lazio winDrawMonza win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lazio vs Monza comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lazio win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 64%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Lazio 64%Draw 23%Monza 12%

64%23%12%

64%

Lazio Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Lazio and Monza. Wins shown from Lazio’s perspective: Lazio 2 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-09	Lazio	5 – 1	Monza	W
2024-11-10	Monza	0 – 1	Lazio	W
2024-05-04	Monza	2 – 2	Lazio	D
2023-09-23	Lazio	1 – 1	Monza	D

📈 Recent form

Lazio

Lazio come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Venezia. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

DLazio 3-3 Juve StabiaFriendlies Clubs
WVenezia 0-2 LazioSerie A
DLazio 2-2 AC MilanSerie A
WUdinese 1-2 LazioSerie A
WLazio 1-0 GenoaSerie A

Monza

Monza come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Sassuolo. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at Lecce.

DBrest 2-2 MonzaFriendlies Clubs
WMonza 2-1 SassuoloSerie A
LLecce 3-2 MonzaSerie A
DParma 1-1 MonzaSerie A
WTorino 0-1 MonzaCoppa Italia

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lazio

L. PellegriniWound
PatricSprained Ankle
A. FurlanettoJumpers Knee

Monza

I. TouréContusion
J. ZiółkowskiFoot Injury
M. PessinaJumpers Knee

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lazio at 64% to win and Monza at 12%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio Win	64%	60%	@ 1.55
Draw	23%	24%	@ 3.90
Monza Win	12%	16%	@ 6.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lazio or Draw at 1.12 (86% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lazio or Draw	86%	84%	@ 1.12
Monza or Draw	34%	40%	@ 2.38

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	66%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 2.5	56%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	44%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	34%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	21%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS No	46%	52%	@ 1.80

📈 How the market moved

Lazio 61%Draw 24%Monza 16%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lazio vs Monza?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Lazio vs Monza?

Our model makes a Lazio win the most likely result at 64%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.0 scoreline for Lazio vs Monza.

What is the predicted score for Lazio vs Monza?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.93 for Lazio and 1.01 for Monza. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lazio and Monza play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.