Sun 11 Oct15:30Upcoming

⚽ Bundesliga

SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

SC Freiburg face FC Schalke 04 in the Bundesliga, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC. Recent form: SC Freiburg have 3 wins from their last 4, while FC Schalke 04 have 1 win from their last 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.9-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.62

68%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.93 – 1.55 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.1%	4.8%	3.7%	1.9%	0.7%
1	5.9%	9.2%	7.1%	3.7%	1.4%
2	5.7%	8.9%	6.9%	3.6%	1.4%
3	3.7%	5.7%	4.4%	2.3%	0.9%
4	1.8%	2.8%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

SC Freiburg winDrawFC Schalke 04 win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04 comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 68% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a SC Freiburg win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

SC Freiburg 49%Draw 25%FC Schalke 04 26%

49%25%26%

49%

SC Freiburg Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Borussia Mönchengladbach. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSC Freiburg 4-2 FC LuzernFriendlies Clubs
DEintracht Frankfurt 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 5-0 Borussia MönchengladbachBundesliga
WSC Paderborn 07 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
WSC Freiburg 4-1 Werder BremenBundesliga

FC Schalke 04

FC Schalke 04 come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Union Berlin. Their only defeat in that run was 0-3 at FC Augsburg.

WAustria Lustenau 0-1 FC Schalke 04Friendlies Clubs
DFC Schalke 04 0-0 SV ElversbergBundesliga
WUnion Berlin 1-3 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga
DFC Schalke 04 0-0 Bayern MunichBundesliga
LFC Augsburg 3-0 FC Schalke 04Bundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices SC Freiburg at 49% to win and FC Schalke 04 at 26%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
SC Freiburg Win	49%	57%	@ 1.67
FC Schalke 04 Win	26%	19%	@ 5.00
Draw	25%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is SC Freiburg or Draw at 1.17 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
SC Freiburg or Draw	74%	81%	@ 1.17
FC Schalke 04 or Draw	51%	43%	@ 2.30

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 2.5	68%	59%	@ 1.62
Under 3.5	54%	62%	@ 1.53
Over 3.5	46%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 2.5	32%	41%	@ 2.30
Under 1.5	14%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	58%	@ 1.62
BTTS No	33%	42%	@ 2.20

📈 How the market moved

SC Freiburg 57%Draw 24%FC Schalke 04 19%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?

Our model's main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.62, with a 68% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 59%.

Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?

Our model makes a SC Freiburg win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.6 scoreline for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04.

What is the predicted score for SC Freiburg vs FC Schalke 04?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.93 for SC Freiburg and 1.55 for FC Schalke 04. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do SC Freiburg and FC Schalke 04 play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 15:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.