Sun 11 Oct17:15Upcoming

⚽ Jupiler Pro League

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

KV Mechelen face St. Truiden in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC. Recent form: KV Mechelen have no wins from their last 5, while St. Truiden have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, St. Truiden won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a St. Truiden win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.6-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

St. Truiden or Draw @ 1.36

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.59 – 1.67 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	6.4%	5.4%	3.0%	1.2%
1	6.1%	10.2%	8.5%	4.7%	2.0%
2	4.9%	8.1%	6.8%	3.8%	1.6%
3	2.6%	4.3%	3.6%	2.0%	0.8%
4	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	0.8%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

KV Mechelen winDrawSt. Truiden win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is St. Truiden or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a St. Truiden win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (63%), both teams to score points yes (63%).

📊 Key numbers

KV Mechelen 37%Draw 22%St. Truiden 41%

37%22%41%

41%

St. Truiden Win

63%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between KV Mechelen and St. Truiden. Wins shown from KV Mechelen’s perspective: 1 drawn · St. Truiden 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-24	St. Truiden	3 – 0	KV Mechelen	L
2026-04-26	KV Mechelen	1 – 4	St. Truiden	L
2025-02-21	KV Mechelen	1 – 1	St. Truiden	D
2024-11-08	St. Truiden	2 – 1	KV Mechelen	L
2024-05-12	St. Truiden	2 – 1	KV Mechelen	L

📈 Recent form

KV Mechelen

KV Mechelen come into this game with no wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 10. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Karpaty.

LKV Mechelen 2-3 KarpatyFriendlies Clubs
DLommel United 0-0 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League
LKV Mechelen 0-1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
LKV Mechelen 0-4 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
DRAAL La Louvière 2-2 KV MechelenJupiler Pro League

St. Truiden

St. Truiden come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to RAAL La Louvière. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to KVC Westerlo.

LSt. Truiden 0-2 KVC WesterloJupiler Pro League
LSK Beveren 2-0 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
WSt. Truiden 4-0 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
LSt. Truiden 0-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
WAntwerp 1-4 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices KV Mechelen at 37% to win and St. Truiden at 41%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a St. Truiden win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
St. Truiden Win	41%	45%	@ 2.05
KV Mechelen Win	37%	29%	@ 3.20
Draw	22%	26%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Truiden or Draw at 1.36 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
St. Truiden or Draw	65%	71%	@ 1.36
KV Mechelen or Draw	61%	55%	@ 1.73

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 63% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	79%	@ 1.18
Over 2.5	63%	57%	@ 1.65
Under 3.5	59%	62%	@ 1.50
Over 3.5	41%	38%	@ 2.50
Under 2.5	37%	43%	@ 2.20
Under 1.5	16%	21%	@ 4.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 63%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	63%	59%	@ 1.57
BTTS No	37%	41%	@ 2.25

📈 How the market moved

KV Mechelen 29%Draw 27%St. Truiden 44%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?

Our model's main pick is St. Truiden or Draw at odds 1.36, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?

Our model makes a St. Truiden win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.7 scoreline for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden.

What is the predicted score for KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.59 for KV Mechelen and 1.67 for St. Truiden. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do KV Mechelen and St. Truiden play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 17:15 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.