Sun 11 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Estac Troyes vs Marseille Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Estac Troyes vs Marseille in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Estac Troyes face Marseille in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Estac Troyes have 1 win from their last 5, while Marseille have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.5-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Estac Troyes vs Marseille with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.57

65%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 1.45 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.0%	7.3%	5.3%	2.6%	0.9%
1	7.7%	11.2%	8.1%	3.9%	1.4%
2	6.0%	8.6%	6.3%	3.0%	1.1%
3	3.1%	4.4%	3.2%	1.6%	0.6%
4	1.2%	1.7%	1.2%	0.6%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Estac Troyes winDrawMarseille win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Estac Troyes vs Marseille comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 65% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Estac Troyes 29%Draw 29%Marseille 42%

29%29%42%

42%

Marseille Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

📈 Recent form

Estac Troyes

Estac Troyes come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Lorient. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Angers.

LAngers 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LLille 2-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
LEstac Troyes 2-6 StrasbourgLigue 1
WLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DEstac Troyes 0-0 Paris FCLigue 1

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 5 defeats from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Paris Saint-Germain.

LMarseille 1-2 Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1
LBeşiktaş 4-1 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
LRennes 1-0 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 2-3 Paris FCLigue 1
LMonaco 2-0 MarseilleLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Estac Troyes at 29% to win and Marseille at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille Win	42%	51%	@ 1.85
Draw	29%	25%	@ 3.80
Estac Troyes Win	29%	24%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.22 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille or Draw	70%	76%	@ 1.22
Estac Troyes or Draw	56%	49%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	80%	81%	@ 1.17
Under 3.5	65%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 2.5	58%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 2.5	42%	40%	@ 2.38
Over 3.5	35%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	20%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	40%	39%	@ 2.38

📈 How the market moved

Estac Troyes 24%Draw 25%Marseille 51%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?

Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a 65% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 60%.

Who is the favourite for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?

Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.4 scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Marseille.

What is the predicted score for Estac Troyes vs Marseille?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Estac Troyes and 1.45 for Marseille. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Estac Troyes and Marseille play?

Kick-off is Sunday 11 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.