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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Netherlands vs Morocco Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Netherlands vs Morocco at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 30 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Result: Netherlands 1-1 Morocco
Netherlands vs Morocco finished 1-1 (Morocco won 3-2 on penalties). Morocco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Netherlands met Morocco in Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, finishing 1-1 (Morocco won 3-2 on penalties). Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Morocco win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Netherlands vs Morocco with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 9.4% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 12.4% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 8.7% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Netherlands vs Morocco is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a Morocco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean under 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points no (62%).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Netherlands at 31% to win and Morocco at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Morocco win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco Win | 37% | 3.40 | +26.8% |
| Draw | 31% | 3.20 | +0.2% |
| Netherlands Win | 31% | 2.16 | -32.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Morocco or the draw at 1.62 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 69% | 1.62 | +11.3% |
| Netherlands or Morocco – Double Chance (12) | 69% | 1.30 | -10.7% |
| Netherlands or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 63% | 1.30 | -18.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 42% | 2.88 | +21.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 69% | 1.65 | +14.3% |
| Under 3.5 | 87% | 1.22 | +5.9% |
| Over 1.5 | 58% | 1.40 | -19.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 31% | 2.20 | -32.5% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 4.20 | -44.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 62%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 62% | 1.85 | +14.0% |
| BTTS Yes | 38% | 1.85 | -29.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Netherlands or Morocco is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands +1.5 | 86% | 1.05 | -10.2% |
| Netherlands +0.5 | 63% | 1.27 | -20.4% |
| Netherlands -0.5 | 31% | 2.15 | -32.7% |
| Netherlands -1.5 | 11% | 4.25 | -53.2% |
| Netherlands -2.5 | 3% | 9.50 | -72.5% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Netherlands vs Morocco prediction correct?
Netherlands vs Morocco finished 1-1 (Morocco won 3-2 on penalties).
What is the prediction for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 69% model confidence.
Who is the favourite for Netherlands vs Morocco?
Our model makes a Morocco win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Netherlands vs Morocco.
What is the predicted score for Netherlands vs Morocco?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.36 for Netherlands and 1.03 for Morocco. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Netherlands and Morocco play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 30 June 2026, 01:00 UTC at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey.
Where is Netherlands vs Morocco being played?
The match takes place at Estadio BBVA – Monterrey, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.