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⚽ Brazilian Série A

Coritiba vs Botafogo Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Monday 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Coritiba face Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Monday 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Coritiba have 2 wins from their last 5, while Botafogo have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 3 meetings, Botafogo won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.4-1.8 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Botafogo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.25

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.41 – 1.75 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.2%	7.4%	6.5%	3.8%	1.7%
1	6.0%	10.5%	9.2%	5.3%	2.3%
2	4.2%	7.4%	6.5%	3.8%	1.6%
3	2.0%	3.5%	3.0%	1.8%	0.8%
4	0.7%	1.2%	1.1%	0.6%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Coritiba winDrawBotafogo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (61%), both teams to score points yes (62%).

📊 Key numbers

Coritiba 26%Draw 34%Botafogo 41%

26%34%41%

41%

Botafogo Win

61%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Coritiba and Botafogo. Wins shown from Coritiba’s perspective: 2 drawn · Botafogo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	Botafogo	2 – 2	Coritiba	D
2023-11-30	Coritiba	1 – 1	Botafogo	D
2023-07-30	Botafogo	4 – 1	Coritiba	L

📈 Recent form

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 13. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at Vasco da Gama.

LVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
DCoritiba 3-3 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.

LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Coritiba at 26% to win and Botafogo at 41%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	41%	35%	@ 2.62
Draw	34%	28%	@ 3.30
Coritiba Win	26%	36%	@ 2.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.50 (71% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	71%	64%	@ 1.50
Coritiba or Draw	55%	65%	@ 1.44

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.8 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 61% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	82%	76%	@ 1.25
Over 2.5	61%	51%	@ 1.85
Under 3.5	61%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 3.5	39%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 2.5	39%	49%	@ 1.95
Under 1.5	18%	24%	@ 4.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 62%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	62%	56%	@ 1.67
BTTS No	38%	44%	@ 2.10

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Botafogo?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Botafogo?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.8 scoreline for Coritiba vs Botafogo.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Botafogo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.41 for Coritiba and 1.75 for Botafogo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Coritiba and Botafogo play?

Kick-off is Monday 12 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.