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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 32
Belgium vs Senegal Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Belgium vs Senegal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Wednesday 01 July 2026, 20:00 UTC at Lumen Field – Seattle.
Result: Belgium 3-2 Senegal
Belgium vs Senegal finished 3-2 after extra time. Belgium won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.30, did not land.
Belgium met Senegal in Round of 32 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lumen Field – Seattle, finishing 3-2 after extra time. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Belgium win the most likely result at 45%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Belgium vs Senegal with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4% | 8.3% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10.9% | 12.3% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.0% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Belgium vs Senegal is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Belgium win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 45%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest gap between our model and the bookmaker price is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.33 (-2.2% model edge).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Belgium at 45% to win and Senegal at 29%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Belgium win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal Win | 29% | 3.40 | -1.4% |
| Belgium Win | 45% | 2.14 | -3.3% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.25 | -15.8% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Belgium or Senegal (draw excluded) at 1.28 (74% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium or Senegal – Double Chance (12) | 74% | 1.28 | -5.2% |
| Belgium or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 71% | 1.30 | -7.7% |
| Senegal or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 55% | 1.67 | -8.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 1.33 | -2.2% |
| Under 3.5 | 73% | 1.30 | -4.6% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 1.95 | -5.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.83 | -5.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 27% | 3.40 | -9.6% |
| Under 1.5 | 26% | 3.30 | -12.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | 2.00 | -4.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.73 | -9.5% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Belgium or Senegal is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium +2.5 | 96% | 1.01 | -2.5% |
| Belgium -0.5 | 45% | 2.10 | -5.1% |
| Belgium +0.5 | 71% | 1.30 | -7.7% |
| Belgium +1.5 | 88% | 1.04 | -8.0% |
| Belgium -1.5 | 22% | 3.90 | -13.0% |
| Belgium -2.5 | 9% | 8.50 | -26.1% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Belgium vs Senegal prediction correct?
Belgium vs Senegal finished 3-2 after extra time. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.30, did not land.
What is the prediction for Belgium vs Senegal?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 78% model probability. The biggest separate model edge is over 1.5 goals at 1.33 (-2.2% model edge).
Who is the favourite for Belgium vs Senegal?
Our model makes a Belgium win the most likely result at 45%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Belgium vs Senegal.
What is the predicted score for Belgium vs Senegal?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.48 for Belgium and 1.13 for Senegal. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Belgium and Senegal play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 01 July 2026, 20:00 UTC at Lumen Field – Seattle.
Where is Belgium vs Senegal being played?
The match takes place at Lumen Field – Seattle, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then shown next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.
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