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⚽ Eredivisie

Heerenveen vs Excelsior Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Heerenveen vs Excelsior in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Heerenveen face Excelsior in the Eredivisie, kicking off Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC. Recent form: Heerenveen have 1 win from their last 5, while Excelsior have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Heerenveen won 2, Excelsior won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Heerenveen win the most likely result at 51%, projecting a 1.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Heerenveen vs Excelsior with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

BTTS Yes @ 1.44

67%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.87 – 1.54 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.3%	5.1%	3.9%	2.0%	0.8%
1	6.2%	9.5%	7.3%	3.8%	1.4%
2	5.8%	8.9%	6.9%	3.5%	1.4%
3	3.6%	5.5%	4.3%	2.2%	0.8%
4	1.7%	2.6%	2.0%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

Heerenveen winDrawExcelsior win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is both teams to score at odds 1.44, with a 67% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Heerenveen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 51%. Goals lean over 2.5 (66%), both teams to score points yes (67%).

📊 Key numbers

Heerenveen 51%Draw 25%Excelsior 24%

51%25%24%

51%

Heerenveen Win

66%

Over 2.5 goals

67%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Heerenveen and Excelsior. Wins shown from Heerenveen’s perspective: Heerenveen 2 · Excelsior 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-07	Excelsior	1 – 2	Heerenveen	W
2025-10-04	Heerenveen	2 – 1	Excelsior	W
2024-01-19	Excelsior	3 – 0	Heerenveen	L
2023-09-23	Heerenveen	0 – 3	Excelsior	L

📈 Recent form

Heerenveen

Heerenveen come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at Sparta Rotterdam. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at PSV Eindhoven.

LPSV Eindhoven 2-0 HeerenveenEredivisie
WSparta Rotterdam 0-4 HeerenveenEredivisie
DHeerenveen 0-0 TelstarEredivisie
LHeerenveen 2-3 AZ AlkmaarEredivisie
DWillem II 2-2 HeerenveenEredivisie

Excelsior

Excelsior come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-5 at home to Groningen.

LExcelsior 1-5 GroningenEredivisie
DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
LExcelsior 1-2 UtrechtEredivisie
WWillem II 0-3 ExcelsiorEredivisie
WExcelsior 2-1 Sparta RotterdamEredivisie

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Heerenveen at 51% to win and Excelsior at 24%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Heerenveen win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Heerenveen Win	51%	53%	@ 1.75
Draw	25%	23%	@ 4.00
Excelsior Win	24%	23%	@ 4.00

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Heerenveen or Draw at 1.22 (76% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Heerenveen or Draw	76%	77%	@ 1.22
Excelsior or Draw	49%	47%	@ 2.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 66% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	85%	84%	@ 1.12
Over 2.5	66%	65%	@ 1.44
Under 3.5	56%	54%	@ 1.73
Over 3.5	44%	46%	@ 2.00
Under 2.5	34%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 1.5	15%	16%	@ 6.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 67%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	67%	65%	@ 1.44
BTTS No	33%	35%	@ 2.62

📈 How the market moved

Heerenveen 54%Draw 24%Excelsior 22%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Our model's pick is both teams to score at odds 1.44, with a 67% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 65%.

Who is the favourite for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

Our model makes a Heerenveen win the most likely result at 51%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.5 scoreline for Heerenveen vs Excelsior.

What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.87 for Heerenveen and 1.54 for Excelsior. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Heerenveen and Excelsior play?

Kick-off is Friday 16 October 2026, 18:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.