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⚽ Bundesliga

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Hamburger SV face VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC. Recent form: Hamburger SV have 2 wins from their last 5, while VfB Stuttgart have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Hamburger SV won 1, VfB Stuttgart won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.4-2.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

VfB Stuttgart or Draw @ 1.28

77%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.35 – 2.13 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.1%	6.6%	7.0%	5.0%	2.6%
1	4.2%	8.9%	9.4%	6.7%	3.6%
2	2.8%	6.0%	6.4%	4.5%	2.4%
3	1.3%	2.7%	2.9%	2.0%	1.1%
4	0.4%	0.9%	1.0%	0.7%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-2

Hamburger SV winDrawVfB Stuttgart win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (65%).

📊 Key numbers

Hamburger SV 22%Draw 26%VfB Stuttgart 52%

22%26%52%

52%

VfB Stuttgart Win

68%

Over 2.5 goals

65%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart. Wins shown from Hamburger SV’s perspective: Hamburger SV 1 · VfB Stuttgart 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-12	VfB Stuttgart	4 – 0	Hamburger SV	L
2025-11-30	Hamburger SV	2 – 1	VfB Stuttgart	W

📈 Recent form

Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 13. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to FC Copenhagen. Their most recent defeat was 0-5 at RB Leipzig.

WHoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SVBundesliga
WHamburger SV 2-0 FC CopenhagenFriendlies Clubs
WHamburger SV 2-1 1. FC KölnBundesliga
LRB Leipzig 5-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
LHamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

VfB Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Borussia Dortmund.

WSC Paderborn 07 0-2 VfB StuttgartBundesliga
WVfB Stuttgart 5-0 SpVgg Greuther FürthFriendlies Clubs
WVfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC HeidenheimFriendlies Clubs
LVfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia DortmundBundesliga
LHoffenheim 2-1 VfB StuttgartBundesliga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Hamburger SV at 22% to win and VfB Stuttgart at 52%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
VfB Stuttgart Win	52%	52%	@ 1.80
Draw	26%	23%	@ 4.10
Hamburger SV Win	22%	25%	@ 3.70

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at 1.28 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
VfB Stuttgart or Draw	77%	75%	@ 1.28
Hamburger SV or Draw	47%	48%	@ 1.95

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-2.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	85%	@ 1.11
Over 2.5	68%	70%	@ 1.36
Under 3.5	54%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	46%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	32%	30%	@ 3.20
Under 1.5	14%	15%	@ 6.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 65%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	65%	66%	@ 1.40
BTTS No	35%	34%	@ 2.75

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Our model's pick is VfB Stuttgart or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 77% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

Our model makes a VfB Stuttgart win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.4-2.1 scoreline for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart.

What is the predicted score for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.35 for Hamburger SV and 2.13 for VfB Stuttgart. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.