Sat 17 Oct18:45Upcoming

⚽ Serie A

AS Roma vs Genoa Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for AS Roma vs Genoa in the Serie A. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

AS Roma face Genoa in the Serie A, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: AS Roma have 3 wins from their last 5, while Genoa have 1 win from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, AS Roma won 3, Genoa won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 74%, projecting a 1.9-0.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for AS Roma vs Genoa with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

AS Roma Win @ 1.36

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.90 – 0.74 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	5.3%	2.0%	0.5%	0.1%
1	13.6%	10.0%	3.7%	0.9%	0.2%
2	12.9%	9.5%	3.5%	0.9%	0.2%
3	8.2%	6.0%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%
4	3.9%	2.9%	1.1%	0.3%	0.0%

Projected score: 1-0

AS Roma winDrawGenoa win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is an AS Roma win at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an AS Roma win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 74%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points no (56%).

📊 Key numbers

AS Roma 74%Draw 16%Genoa 11%

74%16%11%

74%

AS Roma Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

56%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between AS Roma and Genoa. Wins shown from AS Roma’s perspective: AS Roma 3 · 1 drawn · Genoa 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-08	Genoa	2 – 1	AS Roma	L
2025-12-29	AS Roma	3 – 1	Genoa	W
2025-01-17	AS Roma	3 – 1	Genoa	W
2024-09-15	Genoa	1 – 1	AS Roma	D
2024-05-19	AS Roma	1 – 0	Genoa	W

📈 Recent form

AS Roma

AS Roma come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Torino.

DComo 0-0 AS RomaSerie A
DAS Roma 2-2 InterSerie A
WTorino 0-2 AS RomaSerie A
DFenerbahçe 1-1 AS RomaUEFA Champions League
WAS Roma 2-1 AtalantaSerie A

Genoa

Genoa come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Fiorentina. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Rapid.

WGenoa 2-1 FiorentinaSerie A
LRapid 2-0 GenoaFriendlies Clubs
LParma 2-1 GenoaSerie A
WGenoa 1-0 SudtirolCoppa Italia
DGenoa 1-1 FrosinoneSerie A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

AS Roma

M. BahJumpers Knee

Genoa

L. VenturinoJumpers Knee

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices AS Roma at 74% to win and Genoa at 11%, with the draw at 16%. Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma Win	74%	69%	@ 1.36
Draw	16%	20%	@ 4.75
Genoa Win	11%	11%	@ 8.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is AS Roma or Draw at 1.08 (90% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
AS Roma or Draw	90%	89%	@ 1.08
Genoa or Draw	27%	31%	@ 3.00

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-0.7 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	78%	@ 1.22
Under 3.5	73%	64%	@ 1.50
Under 2.5	51%	43%	@ 2.20
Over 2.5	49%	57%	@ 1.67
Over 3.5	27%	36%	@ 2.62
Under 1.5	26%	22%	@ 4.33

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 56%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	56%	52%	@ 1.80
BTTS Yes	44%	48%	@ 1.95

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Genoa?

Our model's pick is an AS Roma win at odds 1.36, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 69%.

Who is the favourite for AS Roma vs Genoa?

Our model makes an AS Roma win the most likely result at 74%. It projects an expected 1.9-0.7 scoreline for AS Roma vs Genoa.

What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Genoa?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.90 for AS Roma and 0.74 for Genoa. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do AS Roma and Genoa play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.