Sat 17 Oct19:00Upcoming

⚽ La Liga

Valencia vs Athletic Club Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Valencia vs Athletic Club in the La Liga. Kick-off Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Valencia face Athletic Club in the La Liga, kicking off Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Valencia have 1 win from their last 5, while Athletic Club have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Valencia won 3, Athletic Club won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 36%, projecting a 1.2-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find our best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Valencia vs Athletic Club with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Market pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.30

73%Bookmaker odds imply 73%

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.18 – 1.18 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.4%	11.1%	6.6%	2.6%	0.8%
1	11.1%	13.1%	7.8%	3.1%	0.9%
2	6.6%	7.8%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
3	2.6%	3.1%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.8%	0.9%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Valencia winDrawAthletic Club win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds. On the match result, the model rates a Valencia win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 36%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Valencia 36%Draw 31%Athletic Club 32%

36%31%32%

36%

Valencia Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Valencia and Athletic Club. Wins shown from Valencia’s perspective: Valencia 3 · Athletic Club 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-05-10	Athletic Club	0 – 1	Valencia	W
2025-09-20	Valencia	2 – 0	Athletic Club	W
2025-05-18	Valencia	0 – 1	Athletic Club	L
2024-08-28	Athletic Club	1 – 0	Valencia	L
2024-01-20	Valencia	1 – 0	Athletic Club	W

📈 Recent form

Valencia

Valencia come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Alavés. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Real Sociedad.

DRacing Santander 2-2 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
WAlavés 0-1 ValenciaLa Liga
LSevilla 1-0 ValenciaLa Liga
LValencia 0-5 BarcelonaLa Liga

Athletic Club

Athletic Club come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at home to Atlético Madrid. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Barcelona.

DAthletic Club 0-0 AlavésLa Liga
DAthletic Club 1-1 ElcheLa Liga
WAthletic Club 3-0 Atlético MadridLa Liga
WCelta Vigo 0-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
LBarcelona 2-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Valencia at 36% to win and Athletic Club at 32%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia Win	36%	27%	@ 3.50
Athletic Club Win	32%	46%	@ 2.05
Draw	31%	27%	@ 3.50

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Valencia or Draw at 1.73 (65% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Valencia or Draw	65%	54%	@ 1.73
Athletic Club or Draw	61%	73%	@ 1.28

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	73%	@ 1.30
Over 1.5	68%	72%	@ 1.33
Under 2.5	58%	53%	@ 1.80
Over 2.5	42%	47%	@ 2.00
Under 1.5	32%	28%	@ 3.40
Over 3.5	21%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	48%	@ 1.95
BTTS Yes	48%	52%	@ 1.80

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Valencia vs Athletic Club?

Our pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.30, with a 73% probability implied by the bookmaker odds.

Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Athletic Club?

Our model makes a Valencia win the most likely result at 36%. It projects an expected 1.2-1.2 scoreline for Valencia vs Athletic Club.

What is the predicted score for Valencia vs Athletic Club?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.18 for Valencia and 1.18 for Athletic Club. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Valencia and Athletic Club play?

Kick-off is Saturday 17 October 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.