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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Canada vs Morocco Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Canada vs Morocco at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Saturday 04 July 2026, 17:00 UTC at NRG Stadium – Houston.
Result: Canada 0-3 Morocco
Canada vs Morocco finished 0-3. Morocco won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 2.5 goals at 1.65, did not land.
Canada met Morocco in Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at NRG Stadium – Houston, finishing 0-3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Morocco win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 0.9-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Canada vs Morocco with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1% | 13.7% | 10.3% | 5.2% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 3.6% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Canada vs Morocco is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Morocco win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean under 2.5 (74%), both teams to score points no (71%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is both teams not to score at odds 1.75 (+24.2% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Canada at 16% to win and Morocco at 53%, with the draw at 31%. Our model makes a Morocco win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 31% | 3.40 | +4.0% |
| Morocco Win | 53% | 1.84 | -1.9% |
| Canada Win | 16% | 4.33 | -29.9% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Morocco or the draw at 1.20 (84% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 84% | 1.20 | +0.6% |
| Canada or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 47% | 1.91 | -10.8% |
| Canada or Morocco – Double Chance (12) | 69% | 1.25 | -13.2% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 74% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 48% | 2.90 | +38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.65 | +22.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 90% | 1.22 | +9.7% |
| Over 1.5 | 52% | 1.40 | -26.9% |
| Over 2.5 | 26% | 2.20 | -43.7% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 4.20 | -57.6% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 71%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 71% | 1.75 | +24.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 29% | 1.95 | -43.4% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Canada or Morocco is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada +2.5 | 92% | 1.10 | +0.7% |
| Canada +3.5 | 98% | 1.01 | -1.4% |
| Canada +1.5 | 76% | 1.30 | -1.7% |
| Canada +0.5 | 47% | 1.93 | -9.9% |
| Canada -0.5 | 16% | 4.25 | -31.1% |
| Canada -1.5 | 4% | 10.50 | -62.2% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Canada vs Morocco prediction correct?
Canada vs Morocco finished 0-3. Our pre-match best bet, under 2.5 goals at 1.65, did not land.
What is the prediction for Canada vs Morocco?
Our main pick is under 2.5 goals at odds 1.65, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is both teams not to score at 1.75 (+24.2% value).
Who is the favourite for Canada vs Morocco?
Our model makes a Morocco win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 0.9-1.5 scoreline for Canada vs Morocco.
What is the predicted score for Canada vs Morocco?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 0.89 for Canada and 1.50 for Morocco. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Canada and Morocco play?
Kick-off is Saturday 04 July 2026, 17:00 UTC at NRG Stadium – Houston.
Where is Canada vs Morocco being played?
The match takes place at NRG Stadium – Houston, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.