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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Paraguay vs France Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Paraguay vs France at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Saturday 04 July 2026, 21:00 UTC at Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia.
Result: Paraguay 0-1 France
Paraguay vs France finished 0-1. France won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.50, landed.
Paraguay met France in Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, finishing 0-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a France win the most likely result at 73%, projecting a 0.5-2.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Paraguay vs France with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9% | 12.2% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 8.0% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.1% |
| 2 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Our prediction for Paraguay vs France is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a France win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 73%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (70%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is under 2.5 goals at odds 2.25 (+31.4% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Paraguay at 8% to win and France at 73%, with the draw at 20%. Our model makes a France win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 20% | 6.80 | +32.6% |
| Paraguay Win | 8% | 16.50 | +27.0% |
| France Win | 73% | 1.16 | -15.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Paraguay or the draw at 4.50 (27% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 27% | 4.50 | +22.4% |
| France or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 92% | 1.02 | -5.9% |
| Paraguay or France – Double Chance (12) | 80% | 1.10 | -11.4% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 0.5-2.5 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 | 32% | 4.33 | +38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 2.25 | +31.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 79% | 1.50 | +18.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 1.20 | -18.4% |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 1.62 | -32.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 2.55 | -46.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 70%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 70% | 1.48 | +2.9% |
| BTTS Yes | 30% | 2.45 | -25.3% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Paraguay or France is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay +1.5 | 54% | 2.35 | +27.6% |
| Paraguay +0.5 | 27% | 4.65 | +26.5% |
| Paraguay +2.5 | 77% | 1.50 | +15.5% |
| Paraguay +3.5 | 91% | 1.19 | +7.8% |
| Paraguay +5.5 | 99% | 1.01 | +-0.0% |
| Paraguay +4.5 | 97% | 1.02 | -1.4% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Paraguay vs France prediction correct?
Paraguay vs France finished 0-1. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.50, landed.
What is the prediction for Paraguay vs France?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.50, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is under 2.5 goals at 2.25 (+31.4% value).
Who is the favourite for Paraguay vs France?
Our model makes a France win the most likely result at 73%. It projects an expected 0.5-2.5 scoreline for Paraguay vs France.
What is the predicted score for Paraguay vs France?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-3, based on expected goals of 0.52 for Paraguay and 2.50 for France. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Paraguay and France play?
Kick-off is Saturday 04 July 2026, 21:00 UTC at Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia.
Where is Paraguay vs France being played?
The match takes place at Lincoln Financial Field – Philadelphia, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.