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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Round of 16
Portugal vs Spain Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Portugal vs Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Monday 06 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at AT&T Stadium – Dallas.
Result: Portugal 0-1 Spain
Portugal vs Spain finished 0-1. Spain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Portugal met Spain in Round of 16 of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at AT&T Stadium – Dallas, finishing 0-1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Spain win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.1-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Portugal vs Spain with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 4.8% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.8% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for Portugal vs Spain is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Spain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (57%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.80 (+0.6% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Portugal at 24% to win and Spain at 52%, with the draw at 23%. Our model makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain Win | 52% | 1.90 | -0.6% |
| Portugal Win | 24% | 3.85 | -6.1% |
| Draw | 23% | 3.50 | -18.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Portugal or Spain (draw excluded) at 1.25 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal or Spain – Double Chance (12) | 77% | 1.25 | -4.1% |
| Spain or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 76% | 1.25 | -5.5% |
| Portugal or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 48% | 1.85 | -11.8% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 | +0.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 34% | 3.00 | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 1.25 | -1.4% |
| Under 3.5 | 66% | 1.38 | -8.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.00 | -11.8% |
| Under 1.5 | 21% | 3.70 | -21.9% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 57%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 57% | 1.65 | -6.6% |
| BTTS No | 43% | 2.10 | -8.9% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Portugal or Spain is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portugal +3.5 | 95% | 1.02 | -3.0% |
| Portugal +2.5 | 87% | 1.10 | -4.4% |
| Portugal -0.5 | 24% | 3.90 | -4.8% |
| Portugal +1.5 | 71% | 1.32 | -6.3% |
| Portugal +0.5 | 48% | 1.90 | -9.4% |
| Portugal -1.5 | 10% | 7.50 | -28.7% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the Portugal vs Spain prediction correct?
Portugal vs Spain finished 0-1.
What is the prediction for Portugal vs Spain?
Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.25, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.80 (+0.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Portugal vs Spain?
Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.7 scoreline for Portugal vs Spain.
What is the predicted score for Portugal vs Spain?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.11 for Portugal and 1.67 for Spain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Portugal and Spain play?
Kick-off is Monday 06 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at AT&T Stadium – Dallas.
Where is Portugal vs Spain being played?
The match takes place at AT&T Stadium – Dallas, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.