Sun 1 Nov19:45Upcoming

⚽ Ligue 1

Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Marseille vs Toulouse in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Sunday 01 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Marseille face Toulouse in the Ligue 1, kicking off Sunday 01 November 2026, 19:45 UTC. Recent form: Marseille have 3 wins from their last 5, while Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Marseille won 3, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 49%, projecting a 1.9-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Marseille vs Toulouse with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Marseille or Draw @ 1.28

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.89 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.8%	5.2%	3.6%	1.7%	0.6%
1	7.1%	9.9%	6.9%	3.2%	1.1%
2	6.7%	9.3%	6.5%	3.0%	1.0%
3	4.2%	5.9%	4.1%	1.9%	0.7%
4	2.0%	2.8%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%

Projected score: 1-1

Marseille winDrawToulouse win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Marseille vs Toulouse comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is Marseille or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Marseille win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 49%. Goals lean over 2.5 (64%), both teams to score points yes (64%).

📊 Key numbers

Marseille 49%Draw 24%Toulouse 27%

49%24%27%

49%

Marseille Win

64%

Over 2.5 goals

64%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Marseille and Toulouse. Wins shown from Marseille’s perspective: Marseille 3 · 2 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-07	Toulouse	0 – 1	Marseille	W
2025-11-29	Marseille	2 – 2	Toulouse	D
2025-04-06	Marseille	3 – 2	Toulouse	W
2024-08-31	Toulouse	1 – 3	Marseille	W
2024-04-21	Toulouse	2 – 2	Marseille	D

📈 Recent form

Marseille

Marseille come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 5-2 at Angers. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at Sturm Graz.

WMarseille 4-3 Le HavreLigue 1
LSturm Graz 1-0 MarseilleUEFA Europa League
WAngers 2-5 MarseilleLigue 1
LMarseille 0-1 Olympiakos PiraeusUEFA Europa League
WEstac Troyes 0-2 MarseilleLigue 1

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Le Mans.

DToulouse 0-0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
WLe Mans 0-3 ToulouseLigue 1
DMonaco 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Marseille at 49% to win and Toulouse at 27%, with the draw at 24%. Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille Win	49%	50%	@ 1.85
Toulouse Win	27%	25%	@ 3.70
Draw	24%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Marseille or Draw at 1.28 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Marseille or Draw	74%	75%	@ 1.28
Toulouse or Draw	52%	50%	@ 1.91

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 64% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	84%	81%	@ 1.17
Over 2.5	64%	60%	@ 1.57
Under 3.5	58%	60%	@ 1.57
Over 3.5	42%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 2.5	36%	40%	@ 2.38
Under 1.5	16%	19%	@ 5.00

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	64%	61%	@ 1.53
BTTS No	36%	39%	@ 2.38

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our model's pick is Marseille or Draw at odds 1.28, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Marseille vs Toulouse?

Our model makes a Marseille win the most likely result at 49%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.4 scoreline for Marseille vs Toulouse.

What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Toulouse?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.89 for Marseille and 1.39 for Toulouse. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Marseille and Toulouse play?

Kick-off is Sunday 01 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.