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⚽ World Cup 2026 · Semi-final
France vs Spain Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for France vs Spain at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Kick-off Tuesday 14 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at Dallas Stadium – Arlington.
Result: France 0-2 Spain
France vs Spain finished 0-2. Spain won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.35, landed.
France met Spain in Semi-final of the 2026 FIFA World Cup at Dallas Stadium – Arlington, finishing 0-2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Spain win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.4-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for France vs Spain with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 12.4% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Our prediction for France vs Spain is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.35, the selection our model is most confident in at 74%. On the match result, the model rates a Spain win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean under 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Spain or the draw at odds 1.57 (+8.2% model value).
Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices France at 31% to win and Spain at 43%, with the draw at 26%. Our model makes a Spain win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain Win | 43% | 3.05 | +29.9% |
| Draw | 26% | 3.10 | -18.5% |
| France Win | 31% | 2.38 | -26.0% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Spain or the draw at 1.57 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain or Draw – Double Chance (X2) | 69% | 1.57 | +8.2% |
| France or Spain – Double Chance (12) | 74% | 1.30 | -4.2% |
| France or Draw – Double Chance (1X) | 57% | 1.35 | -22.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 52% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 74% | 1.35 | +0.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.85 | -3.1% |
| Under 1.5 | 27% | 3.50 | -4.8% |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 1.28 | -6.8% |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 1.90 | -9.6% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 3.10 | -19.7% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 48% | 2.10 | +0.6% |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.65 | -14.0% |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when France or Spain is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| France +2.5 | 92% | 1.02 | -5.8% |
| France +1.5 | 80% | 1.12 | -10.7% |
| France +0.5 | 57% | 1.35 | -22.5% |
| France -0.5 | 31% | 2.30 | -28.5% |
| France -1.5 | 13% | 4.40 | -44.1% |
| France -2.5 | 4% | 8.70 | -65.2% |
| France -3.5 | 1% | 25.00 | -75.0% |
Frequently asked questions
Was the France vs Spain prediction correct?
France vs Spain finished 0-2. Our pre-match best bet, under 3.5 goals at 1.35, landed.
What is the prediction for France vs Spain?
Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.35, with 74% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Spain or the draw at 1.57 (+8.2% value).
Who is the favourite for France vs Spain?
Our model makes a Spain win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.2 scoreline for France vs Spain.
What is the predicted score for France vs Spain?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.42 for France and 1.23 for Spain. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do France and Spain play?
Kick-off is Tuesday 14 July 2026, 19:00 UTC at Dallas Stadium – Arlington.
Where is France vs Spain being played?
The match takes place at Dallas Stadium – Arlington, as part of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these World Cup tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish a new pick every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.