⚽ Major League Soccer
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Saturday 01 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Philadelphia Union 3-2 Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC finished 3-2. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Atlanta United FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at 1.31, landed.
Philadelphia Union face Atlanta United FC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Saturday 01 August 2026, 23:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Philadelphia Union won 2, Atlanta United FC won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 43%, projecting a 1.7-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 8.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.1% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 4.1% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Atlanta United FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Philadelphia Union win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 43%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (60%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC. Wins shown from Philadelphia Union’s perspective: Philadelphia Union 2 · 2 drawn · Atlanta United FC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Philadelphia Union | 3 – 2 | Atlanta United FC | W |
| 2024-09-28 | Philadelphia Union | 1 – 1 | Atlanta United FC | D |
| 2024-04-14 | Atlanta United FC | 2 – 2 | Philadelphia Union | D |
| 2023-10-04 | Philadelphia Union | 3 – 2 | Atlanta United FC | W |
| 2023-07-02 | Atlanta United FC | 2 – 0 | Philadelphia Union | L |
📈 Recent form
Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
Atlanta United FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Portland Timbers. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at home to Orlando City SC.
- WPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- DDC United 0-0 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 2-3 Orlando City SCMajor League Soccer
- DInter Miami 2-2 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LAtlanta United FC 0-2 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- P. NdingaHamstring Injury
- S. AlzateGroin Injury
- P. DiazTransfer negotiations
- A. FortuneInjury
- C. SanchezInternational duty
- Sergio SantosCalf Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Philadelphia Union at 43% to win and Atlanta United FC at 30%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union Win | 43% | 58% | @ 1.63 |
| Atlanta United FC Win | 30% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | @ 4.10 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Philadelphia Union or Draw at 1.17 (69% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union or Draw | 69% | 80% | @ 1.17 |
| Atlanta United FC or Draw | 56% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 81% | @ 1.16 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 61% | @ 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 60% | @ 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 40% | @ 2.33 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 39% | @ 2.40 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 19% | @ 4.90 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 59% | @ 1.58 |
| BTTS No | 40% | 41% | @ 2.23 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Philadelphia Union or Atlanta United FC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC +2 | 84% | 79% | @ 1.19 |
| Atlanta United FC +1.75 | 81% | 72% | @ 1.31 |
| Atlanta United FC +1.5 | 78% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.75 | 73% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Atlanta United FC +1.25 | 72% | 61% | @ 1.54 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.5 | 69% | 78% | 1.19 |
| Atlanta United FC +1 | 67% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Philadelphia Union +0.25 | 63% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.75 | 61% | 49% | @ 1.96 |
| Philadelphia Union 0 | 56% | 73% | 1.30 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.5 | 56% | 43% | @ 2.17 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.25 | 50% | 64% | 1.50 |
| Atlanta United FC +0.25 | 50% | 36% | @ 2.61 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.5 | 44% | 57% | 1.65 |
| Atlanta United FC 0 | 44% | 27% | @ 3.56 |
| Philadelphia Union -0.75 | 39% | 51% | 1.89 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.25 | 37% | 24% | @ 4.04 |
| Philadelphia Union -1 | 33% | 44% | 2.16 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.5 | 31% | 22% | @ 4.30 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.25 | 28% | 39% | 2.46 |
| Atlanta United FC -0.75 | 27% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.5 | 22% | 35% | 2.71 |
| Philadelphia Union -1.75 | 19% | 28% | 3.45 |
| Philadelphia Union -2 | 16% | 21% | 4.50 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?
Our model's main pick is Atlanta United FC Asian Handicap with a +1.75 start at odds 1.31, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.
Who is the favourite for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?
Our model makes a Philadelphia Union win the most likely result at 43%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.74 for Philadelphia Union and 1.32 for Atlanta United FC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC play?
Kick-off is Saturday 01 August 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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