⚽ Eredivisie
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax in the Eredivisie. Kick-off Sunday 09 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Result: PEC Zwolle 0-2 Ajax
PEC Zwolle vs Ajax finished 0-2. Ajax won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, PEC Zwolle Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.34, was void (stake returned).
PEC Zwolle face Ajax in the upcoming Eredivisie tips, kicking off Sunday 09 August 2026, 12:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Ajax won 4, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.2-2.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| 1 | 5.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 3.2% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is PEC Zwolle Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.34, with a 90% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Ajax win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (62%), both teams to score points yes (61%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between PEC Zwolle and Ajax. Wins shown from PEC Zwolle’s perspective: 1 drawn · Ajax 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | PEC Zwolle | 0 – 2 | Ajax | L |
| 2026-03-01 | PEC Zwolle | 0 – 0 | Ajax | D |
| 2025-09-13 | Ajax | 3 – 1 | PEC Zwolle | L |
| 2025-03-09 | PEC Zwolle | 0 – 1 | Ajax | L |
| 2024-11-24 | Ajax | 2 – 0 | PEC Zwolle | L |
📈 Recent form
PEC Zwolle come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 15. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Heerenveen. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Groningen.
- LGroningen 3-0 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LPEC Zwolle 0-7 FeyenoordEredivisie
- DSparta Rotterdam 2-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
- LPEC Zwolle 1-3 NEC NijmegenEredivisie
- WHeerenveen 0-2 PEC ZwolleEredivisie
Ajax come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 17 and conceding 7. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Willem II. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 1-3 at home to PSV Eindhoven.
- DAjax 2-2 ExcelsiorEredivisie
- WAjax 5-1 Willem IIEredivisie
- WFortuna Sittard 1-5 AjaxEredivisie
- LAjax 1-3 PSV EindhovenEredivisie
- WTelstar 0-4 AjaxEredivisie
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- Y. NamliKnee Injury
- R. BounidaInjury
- J. FaberskiKnee Injury
- A. KaplanKnee Injury
- J. SutaloInjury
- A. van Axel DongenThigh Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices PEC Zwolle at 20% to win and Ajax at 50%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax Win | 50% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| Draw | 30% | 19% | @ 4.80 |
| PEC Zwolle Win | 20% | 14% | @ 6.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is PEC Zwolle or Draw at 2.75 (66% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle or Draw | 66% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Ajax or Draw | 60% | 86% | @ 1.10 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.0 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 62% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | @ 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 | 62% | 64% | @ 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 | 60% | 58% | @ 1.64 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 42% | @ 2.23 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 | 17% | 17% | @ 5.60 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 61%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 61% | 57% | @ 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 39% | 43% | @ 2.16 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when PEC Zwolle or Ajax is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle +2 | 90% | 71% | @ 1.34 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.75 | 87% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.5 | 85% | 57% | @ 1.66 |
| PEC Zwolle +1.25 | 80% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| PEC Zwolle +1 | 75% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.75 | 70% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.5 | 66% | 36% | @ 2.63 |
| Ajax +0.75 | 65% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Ajax +0.5 | 60% | 84% | 1.13 |
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 60% | 28% | @ 3.35 |
| PEC Zwolle 0 | 53% | 21% | @ 4.54 |
| Ajax +0.25 | 53% | 83% | 1.15 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.25 | 47% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Ajax 0 | 47% | 79% | 1.20 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.5 | 41% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Ajax -0.25 | 40% | 72% | 1.32 |
| PEC Zwolle -0.75 | 35% | 14% | @ 6.80 |
| Ajax -0.5 | 34% | 64% | 1.48 |
| Ajax -0.75 | 30% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Ajax -1 | 25% | 55% | 1.73 |
| Ajax -1.25 | 20% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Ajax -1.5 | 15% | 43% | 2.18 |
| Ajax -1.75 | 13% | 37% | 2.57 |
| Ajax -2 | 10% | 29% | 3.22 |
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our model's main pick is PEC Zwolle Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.34, with a 90% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.
Who is the favourite for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
Our model makes an Ajax win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.0 scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax.
What is the predicted score for PEC Zwolle vs Ajax?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.24 for PEC Zwolle and 1.98 for Ajax. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do PEC Zwolle and Ajax play?
Kick-off is Sunday 09 August 2026, 12:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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