⚽ Major League Soccer

San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers All markets FAQ

San Jose Earthquakes face St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, St. Louis City won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 2.0-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 2.5 @ 1.50

69%Medium AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.97 – 1.61 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.8%	4.5%	3.6%	1.9%	0.8%
1	5.5%	8.8%	7.1%	3.8%	1.5%
2	5.4%	8.7%	7.0%	3.8%	1.5%
3	3.6%	5.7%	4.6%	2.5%	1.0%
4	1.7%	2.8%	2.3%	1.2%	0.5%

Projected score: 1-1

San Jose Earthquakes winDrawSt. Louis City win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, the selection our model is most confident in at 69%. On the match result, the model rates a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (68%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is St. Louis City or Draw at odds 1.80 (+4.4% model value).

Best value

St. Louis City or Draw at odds 1.80, 58% model probability, +4.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

San Jose Earthquakes 42%Draw 27%St. Louis City 31%

42%27%31%

42%

San Jose Earthquakes Win

69%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

+4.4%

Best value: St. Louis City or Draw

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 1 · St. Louis City 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-04-26	St. Louis City	2 – 3	San Jose Earthquakes	W
2024-09-22	San Jose Earthquakes	1 – 2	St. Louis City	L
2024-07-04	St. Louis City	2 – 0	San Jose Earthquakes	L
2023-06-25	San Jose Earthquakes	1 – 2	St. Louis City	L
2023-03-19	St. Louis City	3 – 0	San Jose Earthquakes	L

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 42% to win and St. Louis City at 31%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Draw	27%	@ 3.95	+6.2%
St. Louis City Win	31%	@ 3.25	+2.2%
San Jose Earthquakes Win	42%	@ 1.97	-17.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.80 (58% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
St. Louis City or Draw	58%	@ 1.80	+4.4%
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw	68%	@ 1.33	-9.3%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	48%	@ 2.25	+8.1%
Over 2.5	69%	@ 1.50	+4.0%
Over 1.5	87%	@ 1.15	+0.3%
Under 3.5	52%	@ 1.62	-15.8%
Under 2.5	31%	@ 2.55	-21.9%
Under 1.5	13%	@ 5.25	-32.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	68%	@ 1.45	-1.2%
BTTS No	32%	@ 2.55	-18.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	43%
Dixon-Coles	Home	49%
GradientBoosting	Home	39%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%), 1-1 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?

Our main pick is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.50, with 69% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is St. Louis City or Draw at 1.80 (+4.4% value).

Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?

Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City.

What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.97 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.61 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.