⚽ Major League Soccer
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
Result: San Jose Earthquakes 1-3 St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City finished 1-3. St. Louis City won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
San Jose Earthquakes face St. Louis City in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 1, St. Louis City won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 2.0-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is St. Louis City with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean over 2.5 (69%), both teams to score points yes (68%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City. Wins shown from San Jose Earthquakes’s perspective: San Jose Earthquakes 1 · St. Louis City 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 3 | St. Louis City | L |
| 2026-04-26 | St. Louis City | 2 – 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | W |
| 2024-09-22 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | L |
| 2024-07-04 | St. Louis City | 2 – 0 | San Jose Earthquakes | L |
| 2023-06-25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 1 – 2 | St. Louis City | L |
📈 Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Houston Dynamo.
- DSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Los Angeles FCMajor League Soccer
- WSan Jose Earthquakes 1-0 Houston DynamoMajor League Soccer
- WSan Diego 2-3 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DAustin 1-1 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
- DHouston Dynamo 0-0 San Jose EarthquakesMajor League Soccer
St. Louis City come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 15 and conceding 6. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Colorado Rapids. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WColorado Rapids 0-3 St. Louis CityUS Open Cup
- WSt. Louis City 4-2 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WVancouver Whitecaps 1-3 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. AdimabuaLower-Body Injury
- E. EdwardsLower-Body Injury
- J. A. Gonzalez MendozaLower-Body Injury
- D. JonesAchilles Tendon Injury
- Celio PompeuKnee Injury
- K. HiebertHip Injury
- B. McSorleyAnkle Injury
- T. PearceInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices San Jose Earthquakes at 42% to win and St. Louis City at 31%, with the draw at 27%. Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes Win | 42% | 44% | @ 2.12 |
| St. Louis City Win | 31% | 31% | @ 3.00 |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | @ 3.70 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is San Jose Earthquakes or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes or Draw | 68% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| St. Louis City or Draw | 58% | 56% | @ 1.68 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 69% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 83% | @ 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 | 69% | 63% | @ 1.49 |
| Under 3.5 | 52% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% | 42% | @ 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 17% | @ 5.40 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 64% | @ 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 32% | 36% | @ 2.60 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when San Jose Earthquakes or St. Louis City is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.5 | 87% | – | 1.11 |
| St. Louis City +2 | 86% | 86% | 1.11 |
| St. Louis City +1.75 | 83% | 79% | 1.19 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1.25 | 82% | 83% | 1.14 |
| St. Louis City +1.5 | 80% | 74% | @ 1.25 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +1 | 78% | 83% | 1.15 |
| St. Louis City +1.25 | 74% | 72% | 1.33 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.75 | 73% | 75% | 1.26 |
| St. Louis City +1 | 69% | 68% | 1.40 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.5 | 68% | 69% | 1.37 |
| St. Louis City +0.75 | 64% | 61% | 1.57 |
| San Jose Earthquakes +0.25 | 62% | 66% | 1.45 |
| St. Louis City +0.5 | 58% | 54% | @ 1.74 |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0 | 55% | 60% | 1.58 |
| St. Louis City +0.25 | 51% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.25 | 49% | 52% | 1.85 |
| St. Louis City 0 | 45% | 40% | @ 2.39 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.5 | 42% | 46% | 2.06 |
| St. Louis City -0.25 | 38% | 34% | @ 2.77 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -0.75 | 36% | 39% | 2.42 |
| St. Louis City -0.5 | 32% | 31% | 3.02 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1 | 31% | 32% | 3.02 |
| St. Louis City -0.75 | 27% | 25% | @ 3.87 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.25 | 26% | 28% | 3.35 |
| St. Louis City -1 | 22% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.5 | 20% | 26% | 3.55 |
| St. Louis City -1.25 | 18% | 17% | @ 5.75 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -1.75 | 17% | 21% | 4.50 |
| San Jose Earthquakes -2 | 14% | 14% | 6.60 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
Our model's main pick is St. Louis City with a +1.5 start at odds 1.25, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
Our model makes a San Jose Earthquakes win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 2.0-1.6 scoreline for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City.
What is the predicted score for San Jose Earthquakes vs St. Louis City?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.97 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.60 for St. Louis City. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do San Jose Earthquakes and St. Louis City play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 02:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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