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⚽ Jupiler Pro League
Lommel United vs Charleroi Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lommel United vs Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
Lommel United face Charleroi in the Jupiler Pro League, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lommel United win the most likely result at 59%, projecting a 1.9-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lommel United vs Charleroi with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11.4% | 10.6% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 6.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Lommel United vs Charleroi is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Lommel United or Draw at odds 1.57, the selection our model is most confident in at 82%. On the match result, the model rates a Lommel United win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 59%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (51%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Lommel United win at odds 2.90 (+71.5% model value).
📊 Key numbers
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Lommel United at 59% to win and Charleroi at 18%, with the draw at 22%. Our model makes a Lommel United win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United Win | 59% | @ 2.90 | +71.5% |
| Draw | 22% | @ 3.40 | -24.0% |
| Charleroi Win | 18% | @ 2.30 | -57.4% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lommel United or Draw at 1.57 (82% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel United or Draw | 82% | @ 1.57 | +28.0% |
| Charleroi or Draw | 41% | @ 1.40 | -42.5% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 1.90 | +0.3% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | @ 3.25 | -0.6% |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | @ 1.28 | -1.8% |
| Under 3.5 | 69% | @ 1.33 | -7.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 1.85 | -12.7% |
| Under 1.5 | 23% | @ 3.50 | -18.5% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 49% | @ 2.05 | +0.0% |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | @ 1.67 | -14.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 59% |
Our models are divided on this match. This pick rests on the ensemble weighting rather than on consensus.
Expected goals: 1.83 for the home side, 0.92 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 (11%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our main pick is Lommel United or Draw at odds 1.57, with 82% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Lommel United win at 2.90 (+71.5% value).
Who is the favourite for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
Our model makes a Lommel United win the most likely result at 59%. It projects an expected 1.9-0.9 scoreline for Lommel United vs Charleroi.
What is the predicted score for Lommel United vs Charleroi?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.86 for Lommel United and 0.93 for Charleroi. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Lommel United and Charleroi play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 17:15 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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Analytical model output, not betting advice. 18+ only. Bet responsibly. Gambling can be addictive.