Sun 16 Aug3-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Atlético Mineiro 3-0 Grêmio

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio finished 3-0. Atlético Mineiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Atlético Mineiro face Grêmio in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Atlético Mineiro won 4, Grêmio won 1. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.5-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Grêmio +1.5 @ 1.34

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.54 – 1.10 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	7.8%	4.3%	1.6%	0.4%
1	11.0%	12.1%	6.6%	2.4%	0.7%
2	8.5%	9.3%	5.1%	1.9%	0.5%
3	4.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.7%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Atlético Mineiro winDrawGrêmio win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Grêmio with a +1.5 start at odds 1.34, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean under 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (53%).

📊 Key numbers

Atlético Mineiro 40%Draw 34%Grêmio 26%

40%34%26%

40%

Atlético Mineiro Win

51%

Under 2.5 goals

53%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio. Wins shown from Atlético Mineiro’s perspective: Atlético Mineiro 4 · Grêmio 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Atlético Mineiro	3 – 0	Grêmio	W
2024-10-09	Atlético Mineiro	2 – 1	Grêmio	W
2024-09-01	Grêmio	2 – 3	Atlético Mineiro	W
2023-11-26	Atlético Mineiro	3 – 0	Grêmio	W
2023-07-23	Grêmio	1 – 0	Atlético Mineiro	L

📈 Recent form

Atlético Mineiro

Atlético Mineiro come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. They are unbeaten in 3. Their biggest win in that run was 4-2 at home to Santos. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Santos.

DAtlético Mineiro 1-1 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A
WAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WAtlético Mineiro 3-1 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LSão Paulo 2-0 Atlético MineiroBrazilian Série A

Grêmio

Grêmio come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at home to Internacional. Their most recent defeat was 2-3 at Botafogo.

DGrêmio 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
LVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
WGrêmio 3-1 InternacionalCopa Do Brasil

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Atlético Mineiro

L. DuarteHamstring Injury
Gustavo ScarpaMuscle Injury
IndioKnee Injury
LyancoFoot Injury
Patrick SilvaKnee Injury

Grêmio

Fabian BalbuenaCoach's decision
Joao PedroTransfer negotiations
MarlonRest
M. MonsalveCoach's decision
M. VillasantiRest

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Atlético Mineiro at 40% to win and Grêmio at 26%, with the draw at 34%. Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Mineiro Win	40%	52%	@ 1.79
Draw	34%	27%	@ 3.50
Grêmio Win	26%	21%	@ 4.35

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Atlético Mineiro or Draw at 1.20 (70% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Atlético Mineiro or Draw	70%	79%	@ 1.20
Grêmio or Draw	56%	48%	@ 1.97

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	74%	73%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	73%	72%	@ 1.30
Under 2.5	51%	51%	@ 1.85
Over 2.5	49%	49%	@ 1.95
Over 3.5	27%	28%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	26%	27%	@ 3.55

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 53%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	53%	51%	@ 1.80
BTTS No	47%	49%	@ 1.91

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Atlético Mineiro or Grêmio is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Grêmio +2	85%	83%	1.14
Grêmio +1.75	82%	76%	@ 1.24
Grêmio +1.5	79%	71%	@ 1.34
Atlético Mineiro +0.75	74%	84%	1.12
Grêmio +1.25	73%	67%	@ 1.42
Atlético Mineiro +0.5	70%	78%	1.22
Grêmio +1	67%	62%	@ 1.52
Atlético Mineiro +0.25	63%	75%	1.26
Grêmio +0.75	62%	54%	@ 1.77
Atlético Mineiro 0	57%	72%	1.33
Grêmio +0.5	56%	47%	@ 2.00
Atlético Mineiro -0.25	50%	60%	1.58
Grêmio +0.25	50%	40%	@ 2.39
Atlético Mineiro -0.5	44%	53%	1.79
Grêmio 0	43%	28%	@ 3.35
Atlético Mineiro -0.75	38%	46%	2.07
Grêmio -0.25	37%	25%	@ 3.85
Atlético Mineiro -1	33%	38%	2.48
Grêmio -0.5	30%	22%	@ 4.37
Atlético Mineiro -1.25	27%	33%	2.88
Grêmio -0.75	26%	16%	@ 6.00
Atlético Mineiro -1.5	21%	29%	3.26
Atlético Mineiro -1.75	18%	24%	3.90
Atlético Mineiro -2	15%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

Atlético Mineiro 52%Draw 27%Grêmio 21%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Our model's main pick is Grêmio with a +1.5 start at odds 1.34, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Our model makes an Atlético Mineiro win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.1 scoreline for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio.

What is the predicted score for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.54 for Atlético Mineiro and 1.10 for Grêmio. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.