Sun 16 Aug0-3Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vasco da Gama vs Santos Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vasco da Gama vs Santos in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vasco da Gama 0-3 Santos

Vasco da Gama vs Santos finished 0-3. Santos won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Vasco da Gama face Santos in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC. In their last 3 meetings, Santos won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vasco da Gama vs Santos with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Santos +1.5 @ 1.28

82%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.52 – 1.24 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	7.8%	4.9%	2.0%	0.6%
1	9.6%	11.9%	7.4%	3.1%	0.9%
2	7.3%	9.1%	5.6%	2.3%	0.7%
3	3.7%	4.6%	2.8%	1.2%	0.4%
4	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vasco da Gama winDrawSantos win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Santos comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Santos with a +1.5 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Vasco da Gama win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (52%), both teams to score points yes (55%).

📊 Key numbers

Vasco da Gama 37%Draw 32%Santos 31%

37%32%31%

37%

Vasco da Gama Win

52%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 3 meetings between Vasco da Gama and Santos. Wins shown from Vasco da Gama’s perspective: Santos 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Vasco da Gama	0 – 3	Santos	L
2023-10-01	Santos	4 – 1	Vasco da Gama	L
2023-05-14	Vasco da Gama	0 – 1	Santos	L

📈 Recent form

Vasco da Gama

Vasco da Gama come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 4. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Fluminense.

WVasco da Gama 5-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WVasco da Gama 2-0 Santa FeCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WGrêmio 1-2 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A
DSanta Fe 0-0 Vasco da GamaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
LFluminense 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrazilian Série A

Santos

Santos come into this game with 4 wins from their last 5, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at home to Atlético Mineiro. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their only defeat in that run was 2-4 at Atlético Mineiro.

WRemo 1-2 SantosBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 4-2 SantosCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WSantos 2-0 Atlético MineiroCONMEBOL Sudamericana
WInternacional 2-3 SantosBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vasco da Gama

BrennerInjury
CuiabanoSuspended (cards)
Mateus CarvalhoKnee Injury

Santos

A. FriasTransfer negotiations
Gabriel BontempoInjury
Lucas VerissimoCalf Injury
MoisesAnkle Injury
Vinicius LiraKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vasco da Gama at 37% to win and Santos at 31%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama Win	37%	48%	@ 1.95
Draw	32%	27%	@ 3.40
Santos Win	31%	25%	@ 3.80

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vasco da Gama or Draw at 1.25 (66% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Vasco da Gama or Draw	66%	75%	@ 1.25
Santos or Draw	60%	52%	@ 1.81

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 52% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	73%	@ 1.29
Under 3.5	70%	72%	@ 1.30
Over 2.5	52%	48%	@ 1.95
Under 2.5	48%	52%	@ 1.81
Over 3.5	30%	28%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	24%	27%	@ 3.50

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 55%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	55%	53%	@ 1.75
BTTS No	45%	47%	@ 1.96

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vasco da Gama or Santos is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Santos +2	87%	86%	1.10
Santos +1.75	84%	79%	@ 1.19
Santos +1.5	82%	74%	@ 1.28
Santos +1.25	76%	71%	@ 1.34
Vasco da Gama +0.75	71%	80%	1.18
Santos +1	71%	66%	@ 1.44
Vasco da Gama +0.5	66%	75%	1.26
Santos +0.75	66%	58%	@ 1.65
Santos +0.5	60%	51%	@ 1.86
Vasco da Gama +0.25	60%	72%	1.32
Santos +0.25	54%	43%	@ 2.21
Vasco da Gama 0	53%	67%	1.42
Santos 0	47%	33%	@ 2.84
Vasco da Gama -0.25	46%	57%	1.68
Santos -0.25	40%	28%	@ 3.42
Vasco da Gama -0.5	40%	49%	1.92
Vasco da Gama -0.75	34%	42%	2.25
Santos -0.5	34%	25%	@ 3.88
Vasco da Gama -1	29%	34%	2.80
Santos -0.75	29%	20%	@ 4.80
Vasco da Gama -1.25	24%	29%	3.29
Vasco da Gama -1.5	18%	26%	3.62
Vasco da Gama -1.75	16%	21%	4.50
Vasco da Gama -2	13%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Vasco da Gama 49%Draw 27%Santos 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

Our model's main pick is Santos with a +1.5 start at odds 1.28, with a 82% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.

Who is the favourite for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

Our model makes a Vasco da Gama win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.2 scoreline for Vasco da Gama vs Santos.

What is the predicted score for Vasco da Gama vs Santos?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Vasco da Gama and 1.24 for Santos. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vasco da Gama and Santos play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.