Sun 16 Aug1-2Finished

⚽ La Liga

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna in the La Liga. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna

Celta Vigo vs Osasuna finished 1-2. Osasuna won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Celta Vigo face Osasuna in the upcoming La Liga tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Celta Vigo won 2, Osasuna won 3. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 53%, projecting a 1.6-1.1 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.35

76%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.58 – 1.14 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	7.5%	4.3%	1.6%	0.5%
1	10.4%	11.9%	6.8%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.2%	9.4%	5.3%	2.0%	0.6%
3	4.3%	4.9%	2.8%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.7%	2.0%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Celta Vigo winDrawOsasuna win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.35, with a 76% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Celta Vigo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 53%. Goals lean over 2.5 (51%), both teams to score points yes (54%).

📊 Key numbers

Celta Vigo 53%Draw 28%Osasuna 19%

53%28%19%

53%

Celta Vigo Win

51%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Celta Vigo and Osasuna. Wins shown from Celta Vigo’s perspective: Celta Vigo 2 · Osasuna 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Celta Vigo	1 – 2	Osasuna	L
2026-02-06	Celta Vigo	1 – 2	Osasuna	L
2025-10-26	Osasuna	2 – 3	Celta Vigo	W
2025-02-21	Celta Vigo	1 – 0	Osasuna	W
2024-09-01	Osasuna	3 – 2	Celta Vigo	L

📈 Recent form

Celta Vigo

Celta Vigo come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Racing Santander. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at Omonia Nicosia.

WCelta Vigo 5-0 Racing SantanderLa Liga
LOmonia Nicosia 1-0 Celta VigoUEFA Europa League
DCelta Vigo 1-1 MálagaLa Liga
DGetafe 1-1 Celta VigoLa Liga
DReal Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga

Osasuna

Osasuna come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Getafe. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Atlético Madrid.

DOsasuna 1-1 Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
LAtlético Madrid 4-0 OsasunaLa Liga
LOsasuna 0-2 EspanyolLa Liga
LAlavés 5-2 OsasunaLa Liga
WOsasuna 1-0 GetafeLa Liga

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 2 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Celta Vigo

B. IglesiasMuscle Injury

Osasuna

V. RosierHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Celta Vigo at 53% to win and Osasuna at 19%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo Win	53%	49%	@ 1.93
Draw	28%	27%	@ 3.50
Osasuna Win	19%	24%	@ 3.95

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Celta Vigo or Draw at 1.24 (79% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo or Draw	79%	76%	@ 1.24
Osasuna or Draw	45%	51%	@ 1.85

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 51% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	76%	70%	@ 1.35
Under 3.5	71%	76%	@ 1.24
Over 2.5	51%	45%	@ 2.12
Under 2.5	49%	55%	@ 1.71
Over 3.5	29%	24%	@ 3.85
Under 1.5	24%	30%	@ 3.10

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	54%	48%	@ 1.93
BTTS No	46%	52%	@ 1.80

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Celta Vigo or Osasuna is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Celta Vigo +0.75	82%	83%	1.15
Celta Vigo +0.5	79%	–	1.24
Osasuna +2	78%	86%	1.10
Osasuna +1.75	74%	79%	1.19
Celta Vigo +0.25	73%	73%	1.29
Osasuna +1.5	69%	–	1.27
Celta Vigo 0	67%	68%	1.40
Osasuna +1.25	63%	72%	1.33
Celta Vigo -0.25	61%	57%	@ 1.68
Osasuna +1	57%	67%	1.43
Celta Vigo -0.5	55%	49%	@ 1.93
Osasuna +0.75	51%	58%	1.66
Celta Vigo -0.75	49%	42%	@ 2.26
Osasuna +0.5	45%	51%	1.87
Celta Vigo -1	43%	33%	@ 2.87
Osasuna +0.25	39%	43%	2.23
Celta Vigo -1.25	37%	28%	@ 3.37
Osasuna 0	33%	32%	2.96
Osasuna -0.25	27%	27%	3.56
Celta Vigo -1.75	26%	21%	@ 4.50
Celta Vigo -2	22%	14%	@ 7.00
Osasuna -0.75	18%	17%	5.50

📈 How the market moved

Celta Vigo 49%Draw 28%Osasuna 24%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.35, with a 76% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

Our model makes a Celta Vigo win the most likely result at 53%. It projects an expected 1.6-1.1 scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna.

What is the predicted score for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.58 for Celta Vigo and 1.14 for Osasuna. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Celta Vigo and Osasuna play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 19:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.