Sun 16 Aug1-0Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Vitória vs Botafogo Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Vitória vs Botafogo in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Vitória 1-0 Botafogo

Vitória vs Botafogo finished 1-0. Vitória won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Vitória face Botafogo in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC. In their last 4 meetings, Vitória won 1, Botafogo won 1, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 42%, projecting a 1.1-1.4 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Vitória vs Botafogo with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Botafogo +1 @ 1.27

80%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.11 – 1.39 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	11.4%	7.9%	3.7%	1.3%
1	9.1%	12.7%	8.8%	4.1%	1.4%
2	5.1%	7.0%	4.9%	2.3%	0.8%
3	1.9%	2.6%	1.8%	0.8%	0.3%
4	0.5%	0.7%	0.5%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Vitória winDrawBotafogo win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Vitória vs Botafogo comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Botafogo with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Botafogo win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 42%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (51%).

📊 Key numbers

Vitória 25%Draw 33%Botafogo 42%

25%33%42%

42%

Botafogo Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

51%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Vitória and Botafogo. Wins shown from Vitória’s perspective: Vitória 1 · 2 drawn · Botafogo 1.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Vitória	1 – 0	Botafogo	W
2026-07-23	Botafogo	0 – 0	Vitória	D
2024-11-23	Botafogo	1 – 1	Vitória	D
2024-07-12	Vitória	0 – 1	Botafogo	L

📈 Recent form

Vitória

Vitória come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Cruzeiro.

LVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 2-2 VitóriaBrazilian Série A
WVitória 1-0 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
LVitória 0-2 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 VitóriaBrazilian Série A

Botafogo

Botafogo come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Grêmio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Mirassol.

LMirassol 2-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A
WBotafogo 3-2 GrêmioBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 1-1 RB BragantinoBrazilian Série A
DBotafogo 0-0 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 3-0 BotafogoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Vitória

AndersonKnee Injury
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
R. RamosKnee Injury
RiccieliCalf Injury

Botafogo

J. BarreraInjury
G. JustinoSuspended (cards)
Kaio PantaleaoKnee Injury
MarcalSuspended (red card)
PaulinhoInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Vitória at 25% to win and Botafogo at 42%, with the draw at 33%. Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo Win	42%	31%	@ 3.00
Draw	33%	28%	@ 3.25
Vitória Win	25%	41%	@ 2.28

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Botafogo or Draw at 1.58 (72% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo or Draw	72%	59%	@ 1.58
Vitória or Draw	54%	69%	@ 1.36

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	76%	71%	@ 1.33
Over 1.5	71%	74%	@ 1.27
Under 2.5	54%	50%	@ 1.89
Over 2.5	46%	50%	@ 1.87
Under 1.5	29%	26%	@ 3.65
Over 3.5	24%	29%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 51%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	51%	56%	@ 1.66
BTTS No	49%	44%	@ 2.08

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Vitória or Botafogo is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Botafogo +1.75	91%	84%	@ 1.13
Botafogo +1.5	89%	79%	@ 1.20
Botafogo +1.25	84%	–	@ 1.23
Botafogo +1	80%	–	@ 1.27
Vitória +1.5	77%	86%	1.11
Botafogo +0.75	76%	66%	@ 1.45
Botafogo +0.5	72%	58%	@ 1.61
Vitória +1.25	72%	85%	1.12
Vitória +1	66%	83%	1.14
Botafogo +0.25	65%	53%	@ 1.83
Vitória +0.75	60%	76%	1.25
Botafogo 0	59%	42%	@ 2.25
Vitória +0.5	54%	70%	1.37
Botafogo -0.25	52%	35%	@ 2.69
Vitória +0.25	48%	65%	1.48
Botafogo -0.5	46%	30%	@ 3.13
Vitória 0	41%	58%	1.64
Botafogo -0.75	40%	24%	@ 3.99
Vitória -0.25	35%	47%	2.03
Botafogo -1	34%	17%	@ 5.75
Vitória -0.5	28%	42%	2.25
Botafogo -1.25	28%	15%	@ 6.25
Vitória -0.75	24%	34%	2.79
Botafogo -1.5	23%	14%	@ 6.60
Vitória -1.5	11%	21%	4.40
Vitória -1.75	9%	16%	5.90

📈 How the market moved

Vitória 41%Draw 29%Botafogo 30%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória vs Botafogo?

Our model's main pick is Botafogo with a +1 start at odds 1.27, with a 80% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 79%.

Who is the favourite for Vitória vs Botafogo?

Our model makes a Botafogo win the most likely result at 42%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.4 scoreline for Vitória vs Botafogo.

What is the predicted score for Vitória vs Botafogo?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.11 for Vitória and 1.39 for Botafogo. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Vitória and Botafogo play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 21:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.