Sun 16 Aug2-3Finished

⚽ Major League Soccer

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: New York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia Union

New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union finished 2-3. Philadelphia Union won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

New York City FC face Philadelphia Union in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, New York City FC won 1, Philadelphia Union won 4. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.8-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Philadelphia Union +1.25 @ 1.25

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.80 – 1.65 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.2%	5.2%	4.3%	2.4%	1.0%
1	5.7%	9.4%	7.8%	4.3%	1.8%
2	5.1%	8.5%	7.0%	3.9%	1.6%
3	3.1%	5.1%	4.2%	2.3%	1.0%
4	1.4%	2.3%	1.9%	1.0%	0.4%

Projected score: 1-1

New York City FC winDrawPhiladelphia Union win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Philadelphia Union with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a New York City FC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (67%), both teams to score points yes (68%).

📊 Key numbers

New York City FC 40%Draw 29%Philadelphia Union 31%

40%29%31%

40%

New York City FC Win

67%

Over 2.5 goals

68%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between New York City FC and Philadelphia Union. Wins shown from New York City FC’s perspective: New York City FC 1 · Philadelphia Union 4.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	New York City FC	2 – 3	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-09-18	New York City FC	1 – 5	Philadelphia Union	L
2024-05-15	Philadelphia Union	1 – 2	New York City FC	W
2023-07-15	Philadelphia Union	2 – 1	New York City FC	L
2023-05-27	New York City FC	1 – 3	Philadelphia Union	L

📈 Recent form

New York City FC

New York City FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 2-0 at Real Salt Lake. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to New York Red Bulls.

LNew York City FC 0-1 New York Red BullsMajor League Soccer
WReal Salt Lake 0-2 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
LNew York City FC 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer

Philadelphia Union

Philadelphia Union come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 19 and conceding 4. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at San Diego. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.

WSporting Kansas City 3-4 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WSan Diego 0-5 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 5-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
WPhiladelphia Union 2-0 CF MontrealMajor League Soccer
WNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia UnionMajor League Soccer

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

New York City FC

D. BaieraKnee Injury
A. FarnosInjury
A. MartinezKnee Injury
N. MercauSuspended (cards)
M. MoralezKnee Injury
A. O'NeillAnkle Injury
Thiago MartinsLeg Injury
K. TrewinAnkle Injury

Philadelphia Union

G. MartinezInjury
P. NdingaHamstring Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices New York City FC at 40% to win and Philadelphia Union at 31%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC Win	40%	41%	@ 2.25
Philadelphia Union Win	31%	32%	@ 2.90
Draw	29%	26%	@ 3.55

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is New York City FC or Draw at 1.38 (67% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC or Draw	67%	68%	@ 1.38
Philadelphia Union or Draw	59%	59%	@ 1.61

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 67% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	86%	78%	@ 1.20
Over 2.5	67%	56%	@ 1.66
Under 3.5	55%	65%	@ 1.44
Over 3.5	45%	35%	@ 2.70
Under 2.5	33%	44%	@ 2.15
Under 1.5	14%	22%	@ 4.35

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	68%	60%	@ 1.55
BTTS No	32%	40%	@ 2.30

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when New York City FC or Philadelphia Union is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
New York City FC +1.5	86%	–	1.12
Philadelphia Union +1.75	84%	83%	1.14
New York City FC +1.25	82%	82%	1.16
Philadelphia Union +1.5	81%	77%	1.20
New York City FC +1	77%	80%	1.18
Philadelphia Union +1.25	75%	76%	1.25
New York City FC +0.75	72%	72%	1.31
Philadelphia Union +1	70%	73%	1.29
New York City FC +0.5	67%	67%	1.41
Philadelphia Union +0.75	64%	66%	1.45
New York City FC +0.25	61%	61%	1.54
Philadelphia Union +0.5	59%	58%	1.64
New York City FC 0	54%	56%	1.68
Philadelphia Union +0.25	52%	53%	1.80
New York City FC -0.25	48%	47%	2.05
Philadelphia Union 0	46%	44%	2.18
New York City FC -0.5	41%	42%	2.23
Philadelphia Union -0.25	39%	39%	2.46
New York City FC -0.75	36%	34%	2.77
Philadelphia Union -0.5	33%	33%	2.81
New York City FC -1	30%	27%	@ 3.58
Philadelphia Union -0.75	28%	28%	3.46
New York City FC -1.25	25%	24%	3.96
Philadelphia Union -1	23%	20%	@ 4.65
New York City FC -1.5	19%	23%	4.12
Philadelphia Union -1.25	18%	18%	5.25
New York City FC -1.75	16%	17%	5.75

📈 How the market moved

New York City FC 42%Draw 26%Philadelphia Union 32%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Our model's main pick is Philadelphia Union with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 76%.

Who is the favourite for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

Our model makes a New York City FC win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.8-1.6 scoreline for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union.

What is the predicted score for New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.80 for New York City FC and 1.65 for Philadelphia Union. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do New York City FC and Philadelphia Union play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.