⚽ Major League Soccer
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.
Result: Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers
Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers finished 2-1. Chicago Fire won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Our pre-match best bet, Portland Timbers Asian Handicap with a +2 start at 1.36, landed.
Chicago Fire face Portland Timbers in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC. In their last 2 meetings, Chicago Fire won 2. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 40%, projecting a 1.9-1.7 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Portland Timbers Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.36, with a 87% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Chicago Fire win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 40%. Goals lean over 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points yes (68%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 2 meetings between Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers. Wins shown from Chicago Fire’s perspective: Chicago Fire 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Chicago Fire | 2 – 1 | Portland Timbers | W |
| 2023-06-22 | Portland Timbers | 1 – 2 | Chicago Fire | W |
📈 Recent form
Chicago Fire come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their most recent defeat was 0-3 at Nashville SC.
- LNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- LChicago Fire 1-2 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
- DChicago Fire 1-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DSeattle Sounders 2-2 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
Portland Timbers come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 11. Their biggest win in that run was 5-4 at home to Minnesota United FC. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Atlanta United FC.
- LPortland Timbers 0-1 Atlanta United FCMajor League Soccer
- LFC Dallas 2-1 Portland TimbersMajor League Soccer
- DPortland Timbers 2-2 St. Louis CityMajor League Soccer
- WPortland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FCMajor League Soccer
- LPortland Timbers 1-2 AustinMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 8 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- A. FrancoKnee Injury
- M. MbokaziLower-Body Injury
- C. MuellerNot in squad
- S. OregelLower-Body Injury
- A. AravenaHip Injury
- A. BonetigUpper Back Injury
- J. MosqueraFoot Injury
- I. SmithAnkle Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Chicago Fire at 40% to win and Portland Timbers at 32%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire Win | 40% | 62% | @ 1.50 |
| Portland Timbers Win | 32% | 18% | @ 5.25 |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Chicago Fire or Draw at 1.15 (67% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire or Draw | 67% | 82% | @ 1.15 |
| Portland Timbers or Draw | 59% | 38% | @ 2.48 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87% | 87% | @ 1.07 |
| Over 2.5 | 68% | 71% | @ 1.32 |
| Under 3.5 | 53% | 49% | @ 1.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% | 51% | @ 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 29% | @ 3.30 |
| Under 1.5 | 13% | 13% | @ 7.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 68%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 68% | 66% | @ 1.41 |
| BTTS No | 32% | 34% | @ 2.70 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Chicago Fire or Portland Timbers is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Timbers +2 | 87% | 70% | @ 1.36 |
| Portland Timbers +1.75 | 84% | 62% | @ 1.52 |
| Portland Timbers +1.5 | 81% | 57% | @ 1.65 |
| Portland Timbers +1.25 | 75% | 52% | @ 1.84 |
| Chicago Fire +0.75 | 72% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Portland Timbers +1 | 70% | 46% | @ 2.05 |
| Chicago Fire +0.5 | 67% | – | 1.15 |
| Portland Timbers +0.75 | 64% | 40% | @ 2.43 |
| Chicago Fire +0.25 | 61% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Portland Timbers +0.5 | 59% | 37% | @ 2.53 |
| Chicago Fire 0 | 54% | 77% | 1.23 |
| Portland Timbers +0.25 | 52% | 30% | @ 3.21 |
| Chicago Fire -0.25 | 48% | 70% | 1.35 |
| Portland Timbers 0 | 46% | 23% | @ 4.12 |
| Chicago Fire -0.5 | 41% | 63% | 1.49 |
| Portland Timbers -0.25 | 39% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Chicago Fire -0.75 | 36% | 60% | 1.60 |
| Chicago Fire -1 | 30% | 54% | 1.77 |
| Portland Timbers -0.75 | 28% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Chicago Fire -1.25 | 25% | 48% | 2.00 |
| Chicago Fire -1.5 | 19% | 43% | 2.20 |
| Chicago Fire -1.75 | 16% | 38% | 2.54 |
| Chicago Fire -2 | 13% | 30% | 3.13 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Our model's main pick is Portland Timbers Asian Handicap with a +2 start at odds 1.36, with a 87% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
Our model makes a Chicago Fire win the most likely result at 40%. It projects an expected 1.9-1.7 scoreline for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers.
What is the predicted score for Chicago Fire vs Portland Timbers?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.86 for Chicago Fire and 1.66 for Portland Timbers. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Chicago Fire and Portland Timbers play?
Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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