Sun 16 Aug1-2Finished

⚽ Brazilian Série A

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.

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Result: Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro finished 1-2. Cruzeiro won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

Corinthians face Cruzeiro in the upcoming Brazilian Série A tips, kicking off Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:30 UTC. In their last 5 meetings, Corinthians won 2, Cruzeiro won 2, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 46%, projecting a 1.4-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Corinthians or Draw @ 1.32

74%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.36 – 0.99 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	9.4%	4.7%	1.5%	0.4%
1	13.0%	12.8%	6.4%	2.1%	0.5%
2	8.8%	8.7%	4.3%	1.4%	0.4%
3	4.0%	4.0%	2.0%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-0

Corinthians winDrawCruzeiro win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Corinthians or Draw at odds 1.32, with a 74% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Corinthians win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 46%. Goals lean under 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points no (52%).

📊 Key numbers

Corinthians 46%Draw 30%Cruzeiro 24%

46%30%24%

46%

Corinthians Win

58%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Corinthians and Cruzeiro. Wins shown from Corinthians’s perspective: Corinthians 2 · 1 drawn · Cruzeiro 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-08-16	Corinthians	1 – 2	Cruzeiro	L
2024-11-20	Corinthians	2 – 1	Cruzeiro	W
2024-07-07	Cruzeiro	3 – 0	Corinthians	L
2023-08-20	Cruzeiro	1 – 1	Corinthians	D
2023-04-16	Corinthians	2 – 1	Cruzeiro	W

📈 Recent form

Corinthians

Corinthians come into this game with no wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at home to Fluminense.

LCorinthians 1-3 FluminenseBrazilian Série A
LCorinthians 0-1 Estudiantes L.P.CONMEBOL Libertadores
LFlamengo 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DEstudiantes L.P. 1-1 CorinthiansCONMEBOL Libertadores
LCorinthians 1-2 ChapecoenseBrazilian Série A

Cruzeiro

Cruzeiro come into this game with 2 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-1 at Vitória. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Santos.

WVitória 1-3 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
LSantos 2-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A
WCruzeiro 3-1 Athletico ParanaenseBrazilian Série A
LAtlético Mineiro 2-1 CruzeiroCopa Do Brasil
LVasco da Gama 3-1 CruzeiroBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Corinthians

AndreMuscle Injury
KaykeKnee Injury
Z. LabyadKnee Injury
VitinhoKnee Injury
Yuri AlbertoMuscle Injury

Cruzeiro

CassioKnee Injury
Gabriel PecBroken Leg
KenjiSuspended (cards)
Leo AragaoMuscle Injury
L. SinisterraMuscle Injury
N. VillarrealMuscle Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Corinthians at 46% to win and Cruzeiro at 24%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Corinthians Win	46%	41%	@ 2.28
Draw	30%	31%	@ 3.05
Cruzeiro Win	24%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Corinthians or Draw at 1.32 (74% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Corinthians or Draw	74%	71%	@ 1.32
Cruzeiro or Draw	52%	59%	@ 1.60

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	79%	79%	@ 1.20
Over 1.5	68%	66%	@ 1.42
Under 2.5	58%	59%	@ 1.58
Over 2.5	42%	41%	@ 2.32
Under 1.5	32%	34%	@ 2.80
Over 3.5	21%	21%	@ 4.40

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	52%	52%	@ 1.77
BTTS Yes	48%	48%	@ 1.93

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Corinthians or Cruzeiro is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Corinthians +1.25	86%	86%	1.10
Corinthians +1	82%	86%	1.10
Cruzeiro +1.75	79%	85%	1.12
Corinthians +0.75	78%	–	1.21
Cruzeiro +1.5	75%	79%	1.19
Corinthians +0.5	74%	72%	1.32
Cruzeiro +1.25	69%	78%	1.23
Corinthians +0.25	68%	68%	1.41
Cruzeiro +1	63%	74%	1.27
Corinthians 0	61%	60%	1.57
Cruzeiro +0.75	57%	65%	1.47
Corinthians -0.25	55%	50%	@ 1.94
Cruzeiro +0.5	52%	58%	1.63
Corinthians -0.5	48%	42%	@ 2.21
Cruzeiro +0.25	45%	50%	1.93
Corinthians -0.75	43%	35%	@ 2.73
Cruzeiro 0	39%	40%	2.38
Corinthians -1	37%	26%	@ 3.69
Cruzeiro -0.25	32%	32%	2.93
Corinthians -1.25	31%	22%	@ 4.24
Cruzeiro -0.5	26%	28%	3.41
Corinthians -1.5	25%	21%	@ 4.50
Corinthians -1.75	21%	15%	@ 6.25
Cruzeiro -1	18%	14%	@ 7.00
Cruzeiro -1.25	14%	14%	7.00

📈 How the market moved

Corinthians 41%Draw 31%Cruzeiro 28%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Our model's main pick is Corinthians or Draw at odds 1.32, with a 74% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 71%.

Who is the favourite for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Our model makes a Corinthians win the most likely result at 46%. It projects an expected 1.4-1.0 scoreline for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro.

What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.36 for Corinthians and 0.99 for Cruzeiro. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Corinthians and Cruzeiro play?

Kick-off is Sunday 16 August 2026, 22:30 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.