⚽ Brazilian Série A

Coritiba vs Mirassol Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Coritiba vs Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 06 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Coritiba face Mirassol in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 06 September 2026, 14:00 UTC. Recent form: Coritiba have 2 wins from their last 5, while Mirassol have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Coritiba win the most likely result at 41%, projecting a 1.7-1.3 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Coritiba vs Mirassol with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.36

80%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.73 – 1.30 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	4.8%	6.3%	4.1%	1.8%	0.6%
1	8.4%	10.9%	7.1%	3.1%	1.0%
2	7.2%	9.4%	6.1%	2.6%	0.9%
3	4.2%	5.4%	3.5%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.8%	2.3%	1.5%	0.7%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Coritiba winDrawMirassol win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Coritiba vs Mirassol is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 80%. On the match result, the model rates a Coritiba win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 41%. Goals lean over 2.5 (58%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 2.15 (+25.4% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 2.15, 58% model probability, +25.4% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Coritiba 41%Draw 28%Mirassol 31%

41%28%31%

41%

Coritiba Win

58%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+25.4%

Best value: Over 2.5

📈 Recent form

Coritiba

Coritiba come into this game with 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Remo.

WRemo 2-3 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 CorinthiansBrazilian Série A
DSao Paulo 1-1 CoritibaBrazilian Série A
WCoritiba 2-1 Chapecoense-scBrazilian Série A
DRB Bragantino 0-0 CoritibaBrazilian Série A

Mirassol

Mirassol come into this game with 0 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 3 and conceding 9. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at Flamengo.

LFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 1-1 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
DSantos 1-1 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DLDU de Quito 0-0 MirassolCONMEBOL Libertadores
LMirassol 1-5 FlamengoBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Coritiba

BrandaoNot in squad
Lucas RonierKnee Injury
B. OcampoInjury
Tiago CoserSuspended (cards)
TingaInjury
JacyInjury
Pedro RangelNot in squad

Mirassol

Edson CariocaInjury
Jose AldoMuscle Injury
NeguebaKnee Injury
WalterInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Coritiba at 41% to win and Mirassol at 31%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Coritiba win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Coritiba Win	41%	@ 2.40	-0.9%
Mirassol Win	31%	@ 3.10	-3.3%
Draw	28%	@ 3.20	-11.9%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Coritiba or Draw at 1.36 (68% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Coritiba or Draw	68%	@ 1.36	-7.3%
Mirassol or Draw	58%	@ 1.53	-11.2%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 58% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	36%	@ 4.00	+43.8%
Over 2.5	58%	@ 2.15	+25.4%
Over 1.5	80%	@ 1.36	+9.5%
Under 3.5	64%	@ 1.25	-19.9%
Under 2.5	42%	@ 1.67	-30.4%
Under 1.5	20%	@ 3.20	-37.7%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.91	+14.8%
BTTS No	40%	@ 1.91	-23.8%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Home	41%
Dixon-Coles	Home	52%
GradientBoosting	Home	38%

All three of our models point the same way. This is our strongest confidence signal.

Expected goals: 1.41 for the home side, 1.19 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Mirassol?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.36, with 80% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 2.15 (+25.4% value).

Who is the favourite for Coritiba vs Mirassol?

Our model makes a Coritiba win the most likely result at 41%. It projects an expected 1.7-1.3 scoreline for Coritiba vs Mirassol.

What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Mirassol?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.73 for Coritiba and 1.30 for Mirassol. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Coritiba and Mirassol play?

Kick-off is Sunday 06 September 2026, 14:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.