⚽ UEFA Europa League
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Crystal Palace 4-0 Lech Poznan
Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan finished 4-0. Crystal Palace won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, over 2.5 goals at 1.67, landed.
Crystal Palace face Lech Poznan in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.2-2.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.9% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 4.7% |
| 2 | 1.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| 3 | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Lech Poznan with a +2 start at odds 1.42, with a 96% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lech Poznan win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean over 2.5 (71%), both teams to score points yes (64%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Crystal Palace come into this game with 3 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lech Poznan. Their only defeat in that run was 2-3 at home to Ipswich.
- DLeeds 0-0 Crystal PalacePremier League
- WCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- LCrystal Palace 2-3 IpswichPremier League
- WCrystal Palace 3-0 MiddlesbroughLeague Cup
- WFulham 2-3 Crystal PalacePremier League
Lech Poznan come into this game with 3 wins from their last 5, scoring 9 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 5-1 at home to Radomiak Radom. Their most recent defeat was 0-4 at Crystal Palace.
- WLech Poznan 5-1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
- LCrystal Palace 4-0 Lech PoznanUEFA Europa League
- LGornik Zabrze 2-1 Lech PoznanEkstraklasa
- WLech Poznan 1-0 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- WLech Poznan 2-1 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 10 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- C. DoucoureOff the roster
- Z. GozoOff the roster
- E. GuessandOff the roster
- D. HendersonFoot Injury
- J. LermaOff the roster
- J. MatetaHamstring Injury
- C. RiadKnee Injury
- A. DouglasAnkle Injury
- A. GholizadehKnee Injury
- A. KozubalInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Crystal Palace at 12% to win and Lech Poznan at 50%, with the draw at 38%. Our model makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan Win | 50% | 13% | @ 7.50 |
| Draw | 38% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
| Crystal Palace Win | 12% | 68% | @ 1.38 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lech Poznan or Draw at 2.75 (81% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan or Draw | 81% | 32% | @ 2.75 |
| Crystal Palace or Draw | 42% | 87% | @ 1.10 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.2-2.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 71% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 81% | @ 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 | 50% | 62% | @ 1.53 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 38% | @ 2.50 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 40% | @ 2.38 |
| Under 1.5 | 12% | 19% | @ 5.00 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 64%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 52% | @ 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 36% | 48% | @ 1.95 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Crystal Palace or Lech Poznan is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan +2 | 96% | 67% | @ 1.42 |
| Lech Poznan +1.75 | 95% | 60% | @ 1.59 |
| Lech Poznan +1.5 | 94% | 53% | @ 1.78 |
| Lech Poznan +1.25 | 90% | 47% | @ 2.04 |
| Lech Poznan +1 | 87% | 40% | @ 2.40 |
| Lech Poznan +0.75 | 84% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
| Lech Poznan +0.5 | 81% | 31% | @ 3.09 |
| Lech Poznan +0.25 | 75% | 24% | @ 3.94 |
| Lech Poznan 0 | 69% | 16% | @ 6.00 |
| Lech Poznan -0.25 | 63% | 14% | @ 6.60 |
| Lech Poznan -0.5 | 58% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Crystal Palace +0.5 | 42% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Crystal Palace +0.25 | 37% | 86% | 1.11 |
| Crystal Palace 0 | 31% | 84% | 1.12 |
| Crystal Palace -0.25 | 25% | 76% | 1.25 |
| Crystal Palace -0.5 | 19% | 69% | 1.37 |
| Crystal Palace -0.75 | 16% | 66% | 1.45 |
| Crystal Palace -1 | 13% | 60% | 1.58 |
| Crystal Palace -1.25 | 10% | 53% | 1.83 |
| Crystal Palace -1.5 | 6% | 47% | 2.05 |
| Crystal Palace -1.75 | 5% | 40% | 2.35 |
| Crystal Palace -2 | 4% | 33% | 2.86 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?
Our model's main pick is Lech Poznan with a +2 start at odds 1.42, with a 96% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 67%.
Who is the favourite for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?
Our model makes a Lech Poznan win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.2-2.5 scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan.
What is the predicted score for Crystal Palace vs Lech Poznan?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-2, based on expected goals of 1.20 for Crystal Palace and 2.45 for Lech Poznan. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Crystal Palace and Lech Poznan play?
Kick-off is Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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