Sat 12 Sep2-2Finished

⚽ Ligue 1

Lorient vs Toulouse Result & Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lorient vs Toulouse in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Result: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse

Lorient vs Toulouse finished 2-2. The match ended level. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.

The model's best bet on this page, over 1.5 goals at 1.30, landed.

Lorient face Toulouse in the upcoming Ligue 1 tips, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lorient have 2 wins from their last 5, while Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toulouse won 2, 3 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lorient win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lorient vs Toulouse with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

79%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.47 – 1.47 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	7.8%	5.7%	2.8%	1.0%
1	7.8%	11.4%	8.4%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.7%	8.4%	6.2%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.8%	4.1%	3.0%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lorient winDrawToulouse win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 79% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Lorient win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (60%).

📊 Key numbers

Lorient 37%Draw 29%Toulouse 34%

37%29%34%

37%

Lorient Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 5 meetings between Lorient and Toulouse. Wins shown from Lorient’s perspective: 3 drawn · Toulouse 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-09-12	Lorient	2 – 2	Toulouse	D
2026-03-21	Toulouse	1 – 0	Lorient	L
2025-11-09	Lorient	1 – 1	Toulouse	D
2024-04-28	Lorient	1 – 2	Toulouse	L
2023-12-03	Toulouse	1 – 1	Lorient	D

📈 Recent form

Lorient

Lorient come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Lens. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Le Mans.

LLe Mans 2-1 LorientLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
WLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DNice 0-0 LorientLigue 1

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at home to Le Havre. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.

WToulouse 3-2 Le HavreLigue 1
DLorient 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DBrest 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 5 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lorient

B. FadigaInjury

Toulouse

A. DonnumPersonal Reasons
A. FrancisMuscle Injury
R. NicolaisenCalf Injury
G. RestesInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lorient at 37% to win and Toulouse at 34%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Lorient win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lorient Win	37%	37%	@ 2.55
Toulouse Win	34%	34%	@ 2.80
Draw	29%	29%	@ 3.25

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Lorient or Draw at 1.40 (64% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Lorient or Draw	64%	66%	@ 1.40
Toulouse or Draw	62%	63%	@ 1.50

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Over 1.5	79%	75%	@ 1.28
Under 3.5	66%	72%	@ 1.33
Over 2.5	56%	50%	@ 1.91
Under 2.5	44%	50%	@ 1.91
Over 3.5	34%	28%	@ 3.40
Under 1.5	21%	25%	@ 3.75

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS Yes	60%	55%	@ 1.70
BTTS No	40%	45%	@ 2.05

⚖️ Asian Handicap

The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Lorient or Toulouse is a clear favourite.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Toulouse +1.75	86%	86%	1.10
Lorient +1.5	84%	83%	1.14
Toulouse +1.5	83%	82%	1.16
Lorient +1.25	80%	82%	1.16
Toulouse +1.25	78%	79%	1.19
Lorient +1	74%	–	1.19
Toulouse +1	72%	78%	1.23
Lorient +0.75	69%	73%	1.31
Toulouse +0.75	67%	69%	1.39
Lorient +0.5	64%	66%	1.44
Toulouse +0.5	62%	63%	1.52
Lorient +0.25	58%	60%	1.59
Toulouse +0.25	55%	56%	1.70
Lorient 0	51%	53%	1.83
Toulouse 0	49%	47%	2.04
Lorient -0.25	45%	44%	2.19
Toulouse -0.25	42%	40%	@ 2.42
Lorient -0.5	38%	37%	2.54
Toulouse -0.5	36%	34%	@ 2.82
Lorient -0.75	33%	31%	@ 3.08
Toulouse -0.75	31%	27%	@ 3.52
Lorient -1	28%	22%	@ 4.28
Lorient -1.25	22%	21%	@ 4.50
Toulouse -1.25	20%	18%	@ 5.25
Lorient -1.5	17%	18%	5.25
Toulouse -1.5	16%	17%	5.75
Lorient -1.75	14%	14%	6.80

📈 How the market moved

Lorient 37%Draw 29%Toulouse 34%

Probability implied by the bookmaker odds with the margin removed, averaged per day.

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse?

Our model's main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with a 79% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 75%.

Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Toulouse?

Our model makes a Lorient win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline for Lorient vs Toulouse.

What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Toulouse?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for Lorient and 1.47 for Toulouse. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lorient and Toulouse play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.