⚽ Ligue 1

Lorient vs Toulouse Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Lorient vs Toulouse in the Ligue 1. Kick-off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Lorient face Toulouse in the Ligue 1, kicking off Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC. Recent form: Lorient have 2 wins from their last 5, while Toulouse have 2 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Toulouse won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Lorient win the most likely result at 37%, projecting a 1.5-1.5 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Lorient vs Toulouse with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Over 1.5 @ 1.28

79%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.47 – 1.47 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.3%	7.8%	5.7%	2.8%	1.0%
1	7.8%	11.4%	8.4%	4.1%	1.5%
2	5.7%	8.4%	6.2%	3.0%	1.1%
3	2.8%	4.1%	3.0%	1.5%	0.5%
4	1.0%	1.5%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Projected score: 1-1

Lorient winDrawToulouse win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, the selection our model is most confident in at 79%. On the match result, the model rates a Lorient win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 37%. Goals lean over 2.5 (56%), both teams to score points yes (60%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is over 2.5 goals at odds 1.91 (+7.6% model value).

Best value

Over 2.5 at odds 1.91, 56% model probability, +7.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Lorient 37%Draw 29%Toulouse 34%

37%29%34%

37%

Lorient Win

56%

Over 2.5 goals

60%

BTTS yes

+7.6%

Best value: Over 2.5

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 4 meetings between Lorient and Toulouse. Wins shown from Lorient’s perspective: 2 drawn · Toulouse 2.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2026-03-21	Toulouse	1 – 0	Lorient	L
2025-11-09	Lorient	1 – 1	Toulouse	D
2024-04-28	Lorient	1 – 2	Toulouse	L
2023-12-03	Toulouse	1 – 1	Lorient	D

📈 Recent form

Lorient

Lorient come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Lens. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Estac Troyes.

WLens 0-1 LorientLigue 1
LLorient 1-2 Estac TroyesLigue 1
DNice 0-0 LorientLigue 1
LSV Elversberg 4-1 LorientFriendlies Clubs
LAngers 2-1 LorientFriendlies Clubs

Toulouse

Toulouse come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 5 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Real Sociedad. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Lille.

LToulouse 0-1 LilleLigue 1
DStade Brestois 29 2-2 ToulouseLigue 1
LToulouse 0-2 LyonLigue 1
LToulouse 1-2 Hamburger SVFriendlies Clubs
WToulouse 2-1 Real SociedadFriendlies Clubs

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Lorient

B. FadigaInjury

Toulouse

A. DonnumPersonal Reasons
A. FrancisMuscle Injury
G. RestesInjury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Lorient at 37% to win and Toulouse at 34%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Lorient win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Toulouse Win	34%	@ 2.80	-4.0%
Draw	29%	@ 3.25	-5.8%
Lorient Win	37%	@ 2.55	-6.4%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Toulouse or Draw at 1.50 (62% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Toulouse or Draw	62%	@ 1.50	-7.0%
Lorient or Draw	64%	@ 1.40	-9.8%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 56% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Over 3.5	34%	@ 3.40	+15.4%
Over 2.5	56%	@ 1.91	+7.6%
Over 1.5	79%	@ 1.28	+1.3%
Under 3.5	66%	@ 1.33	-12.1%
Under 2.5	44%	@ 1.91	-16.6%
Under 1.5	21%	@ 3.75	-21.9%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 60%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS Yes	60%	@ 1.70	+1.4%
BTTS No	40%	@ 2.05	-17.3%

🔬 How our AI model reached this pick

🔍 How our AI model reached this pick

Model	Match result	Probability
Poisson	Away	42%
Dixon-Coles	Home	40%
GradientBoosting	Home	36%

Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.

Expected goals: 1.32 for the home side, 1.27 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Lorient vs Toulouse?

Our main pick is over 1.5 goals at odds 1.28, with 79% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is over 2.5 goals at 1.91 (+7.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Toulouse?

Our model makes a Lorient win the most likely result at 37%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.5 scoreline for Lorient vs Toulouse.

What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Toulouse?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.47 for Lorient and 1.47 for Toulouse. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Lorient and Toulouse play?

Kick-off is Saturday 12 September 2026, 18:45 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.