Sat 31 Oct15:00Upcoming

⚽ Championship

Millwall vs Derby Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Millwall vs Derby in the Championship. Kick-off Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Millwall face Derby in the Championship, kicking off Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC. Recent form: Millwall have 1 win from their last 5, while Derby have no wins from their last 5. In their last 2 meetings, Millwall won 1, 1 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 50%, projecting a 1.5-1.0 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Millwall vs Derby with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.36

75%our model

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.52 – 1.01 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	8.0%	4.1%	1.4%	0.3%
1	12.1%	12.2%	6.2%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.2%	9.3%	4.7%	1.6%	0.4%
3	4.7%	4.7%	2.4%	0.8%	0.2%
4	1.8%	1.8%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Millwall winDrawDerby win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Millwall vs Derby comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our model’s pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 75% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Millwall win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 50%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points no (50%).

📊 Key numbers

Millwall 50%Draw 30%Derby 20%

50%30%20%

50%

Millwall Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

50%

BTTS no

🔁 Head-to-head

The last 2 meetings between Millwall and Derby. Wins shown from Millwall’s perspective: Millwall 1 · 1 drawn.

Date	Home	Score	Away	Result
2025-02-22	Derby	0 – 1	Millwall	W
2024-10-19	Millwall	1 – 1	Derby	D

📈 Recent form

Millwall

Millwall come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at Preston. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Portsmouth.

LPortsmouth 2-1 MillwallChampionship
DMillwall 2-2 LincolnChampionship
LMillwall 0-1 SwanseaChampionship
WPreston 0-1 MillwallChampionship
DMillwall 2-2 West HamChampionship

Derby

Derby come into this game with no wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Their most recent defeat was 0-1 at home to Stoke City.

DSheffield Utd 1-1 DerbyChampionship
LDerby 0-1 Stoke CityChampionship
LQPR 4-1 DerbyChampionship
DDerby 1-1 WrexhamChampionship
DBurnley 1-1 DerbyChampionship

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Millwall at 50% to win and Derby at 20%, with the draw at 30%. Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall Win	50%	55%	@ 1.67
Draw	30%	25%	@ 3.70
Derby Win	20%	20%	@ 4.75

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Millwall or Draw at 1.18 (77% model).

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Millwall or Draw	77%	80%	@ 1.18
Derby or Draw	47%	45%	@ 2.15

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
Under 3.5	75%	70%	@ 1.36
Over 1.5	72%	76%	@ 1.25
Under 2.5	54%	47%	@ 2.00
Over 2.5	46%	53%	@ 1.80
Under 1.5	28%	24%	@ 4.00
Over 3.5	25%	30%	@ 3.20

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 50%.

Selection	Model %	Market %	Odds
BTTS No	50%	49%	@ 1.91
BTTS Yes	50%	51%	@ 1.80

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Millwall vs Derby?

Our model's pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.36, with a 75% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 70%.

Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Derby?

Our model makes a Millwall win the most likely result at 50%. It projects an expected 1.5-1.0 scoreline for Millwall vs Derby.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Derby?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.52 for Millwall and 1.01 for Derby. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Millwall and Derby play?

Kick-off is Saturday 31 October 2026, 15:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.