⚽ Brazilian Série A

Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction

AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Mirassol vs Vitoria in the Brazilian Série A. Kick-off Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

Best bet Key numbers Form All markets FAQ

Mirassol face Vitoria in the Brazilian Série A, kicking off Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Recent form: Mirassol have 1 win from their last 5, while Vitoria have 1 win from their last 5. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Mirassol win the most likely result at 38%, projecting a 1.3-1.2 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Mirassol vs Vitoria with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.

🔥 Best Bet

Model pick

Under 3.5 @ 1.27

75%High AI Confidence

🎯 Score probability

Score probability heatmap (model, exp. 1.33 – 1.19 goals)

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.0%	9.6%	5.7%	2.3%	0.7%
1	10.7%	12.7%	7.6%	3.0%	0.9%
2	7.1%	8.5%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%
3	3.2%	3.8%	2.2%	0.9%	0.3%
4	1.0%	1.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

Projected score: 1-1

Mirassol winDrawVitoria win

🧠 Model summary

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Vitoria is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, the selection our model is most confident in at 75%. On the match result, the model rates a Mirassol win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 38%. Goals lean under 2.5 (54%), both teams to score points yes (52%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is Vitoria or Draw at odds 1.82 (+7.6% model value).

Best value

Vitoria or Draw at odds 1.82, 59% model probability, +7.6% value versus the bookmaker price.

📊 Key numbers

Mirassol 38%Draw 32%Vitoria 30%

38%32%30%

38%

Mirassol Win

54%

Under 2.5 goals

52%

BTTS yes

+7.6%

Best value: Vitoria or Draw

📈 Recent form

Mirassol

Mirassol come into this game with 1 win and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 4 and conceding 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Coritiba. Their only defeat in that run was 0-2 at Flamengo.

WCoritiba 1-2 MirassolBrazilian Série A
LFlamengo 2-0 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DMirassol 1-1 PalmeirasBrazilian Série A
DSantos 1-1 MirassolBrazilian Série A
DLDU de Quito 0-0 MirassolCONMEBOL Libertadores

Vitoria

Vitoria come into this game with 1 win from their last 5, scoring 2 and conceding 7. Their biggest win in that run was 1-0 at home to Gremio. Their most recent defeat was 0-2 at home to Vasco DA Gama.

WVitoria 1-0 GremioBrazilian Série A
LVitoria 0-2 Vasco DA GamaCopa Do Brasil
LAtletico-MG 2-1 VitoriaBrazilian Série A
LVasco DA Gama 1-0 VitoriaCopa Do Brasil
LVitoria 0-2 BahiaBrazilian Série A

🏥 Team news

Reported absentees for this fixture: 16 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.

Mirassol

DenilsonSuspended (cards)
Edson CariocaInjury
Joao VictorSuspended (cards)
Jose AldoMuscle Injury
NeguebaKnee Injury
WalterInjury

Vitoria

AndersonKnee Injury
CamutangaBroken Leg
DuduBack Injury
EduAchilles Tendon Injury
Emmanuel MartinezNot in squad
Nathan MendesKnee Injury
RamonInjury
R. RamosKnee Injury

⚽ Match Result (1X2)

The match result market prices Mirassol at 38% to win and Vitoria at 30%, with the draw at 32%. Our model makes a Mirassol win the most likely outcome.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Vitoria Win	30%	@ 3.80	+13.5%
Draw	32%	@ 3.40	+9.3%
Mirassol Win	38%	@ 1.94	-26.3%

🔀 Double Chance

Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Vitoria or Draw at 1.82 (59% model).

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Vitoria or Draw	59%	@ 1.82	+7.6%
Mirassol or Draw	67%	@ 1.25	-16.0%

📈 Over / Under Goals

Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 54% probability.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
Under 1.5	28%	@ 3.40	-3.7%
Under 2.5	54%	@ 1.78	-4.1%
Under 3.5	75%	@ 1.27	-4.3%
Over 1.5	72%	@ 1.30	-6.8%
Over 2.5	46%	@ 2.00	-7.7%
Over 3.5	25%	@ 3.60	-11.2%

🥅 Both Teams To Score

Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 52%.

Selection	Model %	Odds	Value
BTTS No	48%	@ 1.93	-6.7%
BTTS Yes	52%	@ 1.78	-8.0%

❓ Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Mirassol vs Vitoria?

Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.27, with 75% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is Vitoria or Draw at 1.82 (+7.6% value).

Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Vitoria?

Our model makes a Mirassol win the most likely result at 38%. It projects an expected 1.3-1.2 scoreline for Mirassol vs Vitoria.

What is the predicted score for Mirassol vs Vitoria?

The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.33 for Mirassol and 1.19 for Vitoria. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.

When do Mirassol and Vitoria play?

Kick-off is Sunday 13 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.

How are these predictions generated?

Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.

Are these football tips free?

Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.