⚽ UEFA Europa League
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Plzen 0-3 Union St. Gilloise
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise finished 0-3. Union St. Gilloise won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, under 3.5 goals at 1.40, landed.
Plzen face Union St. Gilloise in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Plzen win the most likely result at 54%, projecting a 1.4-0.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7% | 8.6% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 18.6% | 11.7% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.6% | 8.0% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 4 | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 86% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Plzen win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 54%. Goals lean under 2.5 (68%), both teams to score points no (67%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Plzen come into this game with 1 win and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Their biggest win in that run was 3-0 at Artis. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at Slavia Praha.
- LSlavia Praha 2-1 PlzenCzech Liga
- LPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
- LPlzen 2-3 Sigma OlomoucCzech Liga
- DHradec Králové 0-0 PlzenCzech Liga
- WArtis 0-3 PlzenCzech Liga
Union St. Gilloise come into this game with 5 wins from their last 5, scoring 16 and conceding 2. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 5-0 at home to Lommel United. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- WAntwerp 0-2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WPlzen 0-3 Union St. GilloiseUEFA Europa League
- WUnion St. Gilloise 5-0 Lommel UnitedJupiler Pro League
- WCharleroi 2-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- WSt. Truiden 0-3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 11 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- V. JemelkaKnee Injury
- J. PaluskaSurgery
- M. TvrdonOff the roster
- M. VydraKnee Injury
- A. Ait El HadjOff the roster
- R. FloruczSuspended (red card)
- K. Mac AllisterKnee Injury
- I. PavlicOff the roster
- R. SykesShoulder Injury
- K. Van De PerreSuspended (red card)
- A. ZorganeSuspended (red card)
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Plzen at 54% to win and Union St. Gilloise at 17%, with the draw at 29%. Our model makes a Plzen win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen Win | 54% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | @ 3.40 |
| Union St. Gilloise Win | 17% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Plzen or Draw at 1.50 (80% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen or Draw | 80% | 63% | @ 1.50 |
| Union St. Gilloise or Draw | 43% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.4-0.6 scoreline. The lean is under 2.5 goals at 68% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 | 86% | 66% | @ 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 47% | @ 2.00 |
| Over 1.5 | 59% | 76% | @ 1.25 |
| Under 1.5 | 41% | 24% | @ 4.00 |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 53% | @ 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 34% | @ 2.75 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams not to score at 67%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 67% | 42% | @ 2.20 |
| BTTS Yes | 33% | 58% | @ 1.62 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Plzen or Union St. Gilloise is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen +1.75 | 94% | 85% | @ 1.12 |
| Plzen +1.5 | 93% | 80% | @ 1.18 |
| Plzen +1.25 | 90% | 79% | @ 1.20 |
| Plzen +1 | 87% | 77% | @ 1.24 |
| Plzen +0.75 | 83% | 68% | @ 1.39 |
| Plzen +0.5 | 80% | 62% | @ 1.54 |
| Plzen +0.25 | 74% | 56% | @ 1.70 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1.75 | 72% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Plzen 0 | 68% | 48% | @ 2.02 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1.5 | 68% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Plzen -0.25 | 63% | 41% | @ 2.33 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1.25 | 62% | 80% | 1.18 |
| Plzen -0.5 | 57% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Union St. Gilloise +1 | 56% | 79% | 1.21 |
| Plzen -0.75 | 51% | 29% | @ 3.31 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.75 | 49% | 71% | 1.33 |
| Plzen -1 | 44% | 21% | @ 4.50 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.5 | 43% | 65% | 1.47 |
| Plzen -1.25 | 38% | 20% | @ 4.80 |
| Union St. Gilloise +0.25 | 37% | 59% | 1.61 |
| Plzen -1.5 | 32% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Union St. Gilloise 0 | 32% | 52% | 1.85 |
| Plzen -1.75 | 28% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.25 | 26% | 44% | 2.17 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.5 | 20% | 38% | 2.46 |
| Union St. Gilloise -0.75 | 17% | 32% | 3.02 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1 | 13% | 23% | 4.08 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.25 | 10% | 21% | 4.40 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.5 | 7% | 20% | 4.80 |
| Union St. Gilloise -1.75 | 6% | 15% | 6.40 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model's main pick is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.44, with a 86% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 66%.
Who is the favourite for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model makes a Plzen win the most likely result at 54%. It projects an expected 1.4-0.6 scoreline for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise.
What is the predicted score for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-0, based on expected goals of 1.36 for Plzen and 0.63 for Union St. Gilloise. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Plzen and Union St. Gilloise play?
Kick-off is Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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