⚽ UEFA Europa League
Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth in the UEFA Europa League. Kick-off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Result: Real Sociedad 1-2 Bournemouth
Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth finished 1-2. Bournemouth won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
The model's best bet on this page, Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.50, did not land.
Real Sociedad face Bournemouth in the upcoming UEFA Europa League tips, kicking off Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 2.1-0.9 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.0% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 10.6% | 9.9% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 7.6% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Real Sociedad with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 88% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Real Sociedad win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (59%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
📈 Recent form
Real Sociedad come into this game with 2 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Their biggest win in that run was 3-2 at Valencia. Their most recent defeat was 1-2 at home to Bournemouth.
- WValencia 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- LReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
- LReal Sociedad 0-3 Atlético MadridLa Liga
- WElche 2-3 Real SociedadLa Liga
- DReal Sociedad 0-0 Celta VigoLa Liga
Bournemouth come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 6. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to Lincoln. Their only defeat in that run was 0-1 at home to Liverpool.
- LBournemouth 0-1 LiverpoolPremier League
- WReal Sociedad 1-2 BournemouthUEFA Europa League
- DBournemouth 2-2 BrentfordPremier League
- WBournemouth 4-0 LincolnLeague Cup
- DNewcastle 2-2 BournemouthPremier League
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 12 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- J. AramburuSuspended (red card)
- A. OdriozolaKnee Injury
- I. ZubeldiaInjury
- M. AaronsOff the roster
- A. AdliCalf Injury
- J. AraujoThigh Injury
- F. ForsterOff the roster
- B. Gannon-DoakOff the roster
- D. JebbisonOff the roster
- E. J. KroupiFoot Injury
- V. MilosavljevicInjury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Real Sociedad at 52% to win and Bournemouth at 21%, with the draw at 28%. Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad Win | 52% | 33% | @ 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Bournemouth Win | 21% | 40% | @ 2.35 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Real Sociedad or Draw at 1.57 (78% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad or Draw | 78% | 60% | @ 1.57 |
| Bournemouth or Draw | 47% | 67% | @ 1.40 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 2.1-0.9 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 59% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | @ 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 | 63% | 64% | @ 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 | 59% | 55% | @ 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 45% | @ 2.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 37% | 36% | @ 2.62 |
| Under 1.5 | 19% | 22% | @ 4.33 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 59% | @ 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 41% | @ 2.25 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Real Sociedad or Bournemouth is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad +1.75 | 93% | 83% | @ 1.14 |
| Real Sociedad +1.5 | 92% | 78% | @ 1.21 |
| Real Sociedad +1.25 | 88% | – | @ 1.25 |
| Real Sociedad +1 | 85% | 74% | @ 1.29 |
| Real Sociedad +0.75 | 81% | 65% | @ 1.46 |
| Real Sociedad +0.5 | 78% | 59% | @ 1.62 |
| Bournemouth +1.75 | 75% | 86% | 1.10 |
| Real Sociedad +0.25 | 72% | 53% | @ 1.84 |
| Bournemouth +1.5 | 71% | 84% | 1.13 |
| Real Sociedad 0 | 66% | 44% | @ 2.18 |
| Bournemouth +1.25 | 65% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Real Sociedad -0.25 | 59% | 37% | @ 2.55 |
| Bournemouth +1 | 59% | – | 1.19 |
| Real Sociedad -0.5 | 53% | 33% | @ 2.92 |
| Bournemouth +0.75 | 53% | 74% | 1.28 |
| Real Sociedad -0.75 | 47% | 26% | @ 3.62 |
| Bournemouth +0.5 | 47% | 67% | 1.41 |
| Bournemouth +0.25 | 41% | 63% | 1.52 |
| Real Sociedad -1.25 | 35% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Bournemouth 0 | 34% | 56% | 1.70 |
| Real Sociedad -1.5 | 29% | 16% | @ 5.90 |
| Bournemouth -0.25 | 28% | 47% | 2.04 |
| Real Sociedad -1.75 | 25% | 14% | @ 7.00 |
| Bournemouth -0.5 | 22% | 41% | 2.32 |
| Bournemouth -0.75 | 19% | 35% | 2.75 |
| Bournemouth -1 | 15% | 26% | 3.61 |
| Bournemouth -1.5 | 8% | 22% | 4.25 |
| Bournemouth -1.75 | 7% | 17% | 5.75 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth?
Our model's main pick is Real Sociedad with a +1.25 start at odds 1.25, with a 88% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 80%.
Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth?
Our model makes a Real Sociedad win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 2.1-0.9 scoreline for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth.
What is the predicted score for Real Sociedad vs Bournemouth?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 2-0, based on expected goals of 2.13 for Real Sociedad and 0.93 for Bournemouth. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Real Sociedad and Bournemouth play?
Kick-off is Thursday 17 September 2026, 19:00 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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