vs
⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Toronto FC face Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Nashville SC have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 4 meetings, Nashville SC won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC with model probabilities and value against the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC is generated entirely by our model ensemble: every market shows the model probability next to the bookmaker odds, so you can see exactly where the value sits. Our main pick is Nashville SC or Draw at odds 1.36, the selection our model is most confident in at 77%. On the match result, the model rates a Nashville SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%). Separately, the biggest value edge versus the bookmaker price is a Nashville SC win at odds 2.18 (+13.6% model value).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 4 meetings between Toronto FC and Nashville SC. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: 2 drawn · Nashville SC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-19 | Toronto FC | 1 – 2 | Nashville SC | L |
| 2024-05-16 | Nashville SC | 2 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2023-06-10 | Toronto FC | 1 – 1 | Nashville SC | D |
| 2023-04-09 | Nashville SC | 0 – 0 | Toronto FC | D |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 2 wins and 3 draws from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 10. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at Inter Miami. They have found the net in every one of those 5 matches.
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
- WInter Miami 1-2 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 3-3 CharlotteMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 New England RevolutionMajor League Soccer
Nashville SC come into this game with 4 wins and 1 draw from their last 5, scoring 12 and conceding 3. They are unbeaten in 5. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FC Cincinnati.
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- WNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
- WNashville SC 3-2 Columbus CrewMajor League Soccer
- WNew York Red Bulls 0-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- WNashville SC 4-1 Inter MiamiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 4 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- N. DorschFace Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- W. MadrigalLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 23% to win and Nashville SC at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC Win | 52% | @ 2.18 | +13.6% |
| Draw | 25% | @ 3.50 | -12.0% |
| Toronto FC Win | 23% | @ 3.05 | -30.6% |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nashville SC or Draw at 1.36 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or Draw | 77% | @ 1.36 | +4.6% |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 48% | @ 1.65 | -21.6% |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 | 47% | @ 2.16 | +2.4% |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | @ 4.35 | +2.0% |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | @ 1.44 | +0.3% |
| Over 1.5 | 76% | @ 1.20 | -8.1% |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | @ 1.67 | -12.2% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | @ 2.70 | -18.0% |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Odds | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS No | 46% | @ 2.33 | +8.2% |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | @ 1.54 | -17.5% |
🔬 How our AI model reached this pick
| Model | Match result | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Poisson | Home | 37% |
| Dixon-Coles | Away | 60% |
| GradientBoosting | Away | 55% |
Two of our three models agree; the third sees it differently. A reasonable but not maximal signal.
Expected goals: 1.01 for the home side, 1.66 for the away side. Most likely scorelines: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (10%).
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our main pick is Nashville SC or Draw at odds 1.36, with 77% model confidence. The biggest separate value edge is a Nashville SC win at 2.18 (+13.6% value).
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Toronto FC and 1.64 for Nashville SC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every market probability is produced by our ensemble of independent statistical and machine-learning models, then compared against bookmaker odds to find value. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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