⚽ Major League Soccer
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Result & Prediction
AI prediction, betting tips and full market odds for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC in the Major League Soccer. Kick-off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
Result: Toronto FC 2-1 Nashville SC
Toronto FC vs Nashville SC finished 2-1. Toronto FC won. The pre-match model prediction and the full market probabilities we published before kick-off are shown below, unchanged.
Toronto FC face Nashville SC in the upcoming Major League Soccer tips, kicking off Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC. Recent form: Toronto FC have 2 wins from their last 5, while Nashville SC have 4 wins from their last 5. In their last 5 meetings, Toronto FC won 1, Nashville SC won 2, 2 drawn. Our model ensemble simulates the match thousands of times and makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 52%, projecting a 1.1-1.6 expected scoreline. Below you will find the model’s best bet, a full score probability heatmap and every betting market for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC with our model probabilities next to the probabilities implied by the latest bookmaker odds.
🔥 Best Bet
🎯 Score probability
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 7.1% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
🧠 Model summary
Our prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC comes from our model ensemble. Every market shows the model probability next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, so you can see where they agree and where they differ. Our main pick is Nashville SC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 81% model probability. On the match result, the model rates a Nashville SC win the most likely 1X2 outcome at 52%. Goals lean over 2.5 (53%), both teams to score points yes (54%).
📊 Key numbers
🔁 Head-to-head
The last 5 meetings between Toronto FC and Nashville SC. Wins shown from Toronto FC’s perspective: Toronto FC 1 · 2 drawn · Nashville SC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Toronto FC | 2 – 1 | Nashville SC | W |
| 2024-06-19 | Toronto FC | 1 – 2 | Nashville SC | L |
| 2024-05-16 | Nashville SC | 2 – 0 | Toronto FC | L |
| 2023-06-10 | Toronto FC | 1 – 1 | Nashville SC | D |
| 2023-04-09 | Nashville SC | 0 – 0 | Toronto FC | D |
📈 Recent form
Toronto FC come into this game with 1 win and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 8 and conceding 12. Their biggest win in that run was 2-1 at home to Nashville SC. Their most recent defeat was 1-3 at St. Louis City.
- LSt. Louis City 3-1 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- LOrlando City SC 3-0 Toronto FCMajor League Soccer
- WToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 4-4 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DToronto FC 1-1 New York City FCMajor League Soccer
Nashville SC come into this game with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5, scoring 10 and conceding 4. Their biggest win in that run was 4-0 at home to FC Cincinnati. Their only defeat in that run was 1-2 at Toronto FC.
- WNashville SC 3-0 Chicago FireMajor League Soccer
- DInter Miami 2-2 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- LToronto FC 2-1 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- DNew York City FC 0-0 Nashville SCMajor League Soccer
- WNashville SC 4-0 FC CincinnatiMajor League Soccer
🏥 Team news
Reported absentees for this fixture: 6 players listed as injured, suspended or out of the squad.
- D. DixonInjury
- D. MihailovicMuscle Injury
- J. OsorioKnee Injury
- N. PalacioLower-Body Injury
- L. StefanovicFoot Injury
- W. MadrigalLower-Body Injury
⚽ Match Result (1X2)
The match result market prices Toronto FC at 23% to win and Nashville SC at 52%, with the draw at 25%. Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely outcome.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC Win | 52% | 43% | @ 2.20 |
| Draw | 25% | 27% | @ 3.50 |
| Toronto FC Win | 23% | 31% | @ 3.05 |
🔀 Double Chance
Double chance covers two of the three results, lowering the odds in exchange for a wider safety net. The shortest price here is Nashville SC or Draw at 1.36 (77% model).
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC or Draw | 77% | 69% | @ 1.36 |
| Toronto FC or Draw | 48% | 57% | @ 1.64 |
📈 Over / Under Goals
Total goals are modelled from an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline. The lean is over 2.5 goals at 53% probability.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 76% | 78% | @ 1.20 |
| Under 3.5 | 70% | 65% | @ 1.44 |
| Over 2.5 | 53% | 56% | @ 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 44% | @ 2.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 35% | @ 2.70 |
| Under 1.5 | 24% | 22% | @ 4.35 |
🥅 Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score asks whether each side finds the net at least once. Our model leans towards both teams to score at 54%.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 60% | @ 1.54 |
| BTTS No | 46% | 40% | @ 2.33 |
⚖️ Asian Handicap
The Asian handicap removes the draw by giving one side a goals head-start, useful when Toronto FC or Nashville SC is a clear favourite.
| Selection | Model % | Market % | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC +1.5 | 92% | 84% | @ 1.13 |
| Nashville SC +1.25 | 88% | 83% | @ 1.15 |
| Nashville SC +1 | 84% | 81% | 1.17 |
| Nashville SC +0.75 | 81% | 74% | @ 1.28 |
| Nashville SC +0.5 | 77% | 68% | @ 1.39 |
| Toronto FC +1.75 | 76% | 83% | 1.15 |
| Toronto FC +1.5 | 72% | 77% | 1.22 |
| Nashville SC +0.25 | 71% | 63% | @ 1.51 |
| Toronto FC +1.25 | 66% | 76% | 1.26 |
| Nashville SC 0 | 65% | 56% | @ 1.69 |
| Toronto FC +1 | 60% | 73% | 1.31 |
| Nashville SC -0.25 | 59% | 48% | @ 2.00 |
| Toronto FC +0.75 | 54% | 64% | 1.49 |
| Nashville SC -0.5 | 52% | 43% | @ 2.21 |
| Toronto FC +0.5 | 48% | 57% | 1.64 |
| Nashville SC -0.75 | 46% | 36% | @ 2.67 |
| Toronto FC +0.25 | 41% | 52% | 1.84 |
| Nashville SC -1 | 40% | 27% | @ 3.51 |
| Toronto FC 0 | 35% | 44% | 2.17 |
| Nashville SC -1.25 | 34% | 24% | @ 3.90 |
| Toronto FC -0.25 | 29% | 37% | 2.56 |
| Nashville SC -1.5 | 28% | 23% | @ 3.98 |
| Nashville SC -1.75 | 24% | 17% | @ 5.50 |
| Toronto FC -0.5 | 23% | 32% | 2.89 |
| Toronto FC -0.75 | 19% | 26% | 3.63 |
| Toronto FC -1 | 16% | 19% | 5.00 |
| Toronto FC -1.25 | 12% | 17% | 5.50 |
| Toronto FC -1.5 | 8% | 16% | 5.90 |
📈 How the market moved
❓ Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our model's main pick is Nashville SC with a +0.75 start at odds 1.28, with a 81% model probability. The bookmaker odds imply about 74%.
Who is the favourite for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
Our model makes a Nashville SC win the most likely result at 52%. It projects an expected 1.1-1.6 scoreline for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Nashville SC?
The most likely scoreline from our model is around 1-1, based on expected goals of 1.14 for Toronto FC and 1.64 for Nashville SC. The full score probability grid is shown in the heatmap above.
When do Toronto FC and Nashville SC play?
Kick-off is Wednesday 09 September 2026, 23:30 UTC.
How are these predictions generated?
Every model probability comes from our ensemble of statistical and machine-learning models. We show it next to the probability implied by the bookmaker odds, because in our own testing the market is a hard benchmark to beat. No human opinion is involved.
Are these football tips free?
Yes, completely free. We publish new picks every morning across all our channels.
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